Iran

As expected, Iran scoffed at sanctions and is now promoting their Oil for Gold program with India and China.  Any bets on when we first read about conflict in the straits of hormuz?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vD8Y1jLo...

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Executive Summary

• Higher oil prices caused by an Iran conflict could very well be the trigger for the next major economic downturn
• Where oil prices will likely go, and how quickly, if a conflict erupts in the Persian Gulf 
• The prudent steps you should take now, in advance of a potential conflict
• How the financial markets will react, and likely safe havens
• Why a war with Iran will be much messier than the Iraq war

Part I: Iran: Oh, No; Not Again

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: Are You Prepared for $200 Oil?

In Part I, we connected a few dots and made the point that Iran remains the last unconquered oil province within the last great deposit fields left on the planet. Perhaps it is coincidence that Iran now finds itself in the crosshairs, but that is unlikely. Instead, the oil treasures of the Middle East remain the last great prize, and Iran is unlucky enough to be standing in the way.

Once one understands where we are in the Peak Oil story, all of these maneuvers make sense and conform to a brutal but coherent logic: If oil supplies are dwindling as fast as the data suggests, then controlling the last, best supplies will be considered essential by every interested party.

While such speculation is interesting to engage in, there's really nothing you or I can do to alter these events. Instead, our job is to prepare as best we can.

The larger set of world events is grinding inexorably towards a lower standard of living, with the squabbling at present really being over who eats the first sets of losses. However, the next leg of the downturn will be precipitated by some event, and a war with Iran that spikes oil prices would be a perfect catalyst.

In each of the years 2008, 2009, and 2010, significant worries emerged that Western nations might attack Iran. Here again in 2012, similar concerns are once again at the surface.

Why revisit this topic again? Simply because if actions against Iran trigger a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world's daily sea-borne oil passes, oil prices will spike, the world's teetering economy will slump, and the arrival of the next financial emergency will be hastened. Even if the strait remains open but Iran is blocked from being an oil exporter for a period of time, it bears mentioning that Iran is the third largest exporter of oil in the world after Saudi Arabia and Russia.  read more »

Any Strait of Hormuz experts here?  We have our 5th Navy fleet out there with 20 ships etc...  Anyone know what Iran has there and how they would go about keeping the Strait closed for more than a day?  What would they actually do and what would we actually do if they knocked out an oil tanker or something?   

Thanks,

MrEnergyCzar

Surprised the news of an Iranian plot to assasinate the Saudi ambassador on US soil hasn't hit these pages.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-usa-security-iran-idUSTRE79A5E020111012?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

The storyline does however seem farfetched and looks like it might well be another sting operation so I tend to lean with the false flag interpretation which seems prevalent, at least at the sites I visit.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cvn-77-ghw-bush-enters-persian-gulf-cia-veteran-robert-baer-predicts-september-israel-iran-w

Here's the Real Kicker:

Bob Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal writes: http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/07/israel-iran-war-in-september.html

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