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EmailTuesday, January 12, 2010
Executive Summary
- China is pursuing an active policy of resource mercantilism.
- China appears to be strategically preparing for resource scarcity.
- China's auto sales have surpassed those of the US.
- This year China also edged out Germany as the top exporter.
- As China's economy expands, its energy use increases.
- The US should be stewarding its remaining resources and transitioning deliberately to a very different economic model, but instead we are wasting both time and resources.
No, this report has nothing to do with golfing. In the Chinese calendar, 2010 is the Year of the Tiger.
While the US and Europe are busy wasting time trying to figure out how to return to the condition of illusory economic health that defined The Aughts, China seems to be operating from a very different playbook.
For the moment, I want you to assume that the concept of rapidly (and permanently) depleting resources is a reality. This shouldn't be much of a stretch, because this is true on a per-capita basis for nearly every critical resource, and some are already "past peak" by any measure.
Now suppose that you have a multi-year view of things and are in charge of running a major nation. What would your strategy be?
Your faithful information scout,
Chris Martenson
Copyright 2010, Chris Martenson. All rights reserved.
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Comments
For a counterpoint, here's an opinion piece that makes the claim that China is far weaker than portrayed and extremely vulnerable to downstream economic shocks:
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China has yet to confront what has become an enormous overcapacity for producing cheap goods...
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Hi there - after going through the Crash Course, I've been reading this site for about a year and became an enrolled member. I really appreciate the information provided - thank you Chris.
I have been trying to research water supplies here in the US and have mostly found vague reports...
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"Where some would remind us that China's military is no match for that of the West, I would remind them that China holds the seeds of our economic destruction in the form of hundreds of billions of dollars in US Treasury bonds, which we gladly and willingly sold to them...
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Very good read, many thanks!
Chris:
Do you actually believe the 40 percent yearly growth of the chinese auto sales? Do you believe any of their numbers? I'm not denying that they are growing, but I am highly suspicious that their numbers are a bit exagerated...
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If anyone is considering investing in this theme, Stephen Leeb has a portfolio that is aptly called "Peak Resources". I have no allegiance to him other than I have some money in this portfolio for precisely the reasons Dr M stated above. I think it is well run, but it does have a minimum investment amount of 100K...
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Thanks Chris,
Could you give us more specific recommendations on commodities and resource companies that you feel are the best investments. That would be very helpful.Hi Donna,
Try the USGS sites in the regions you are interested in. Great sources of water info. Both Wickenburg and Boise, like most of the west, are dependent on underground water sources like the Ogallala aquifer. But that doesn't mean you can't live in those places...
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I have been trying to research water supplies here in the US and have mostly found vague reports. I live in Phoenix, Arizona and don't think this will be a great place to live in the longer term.
Does anyone have suggestions about sites that I can look at to do further research? I have been trying to find out information on Wickenburg Arizona and Boise Idaho...
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A co-worker of mine went to Malawi (mostly sounth of Tanzania and west of Mozambique) over the last half of December to visit a friend in Peace Corps there. In speaking with him, he was commenting on how poor the country is, as it is landlocked and has no real tourism (they have elephants and rhinos, but no cats, zebra, giraffe or wildabeast -- so not a big safari draw)...
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