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Monday, August 10, 2009
Executive Summary
- Be wary of early declarations of victory.
- Household credit/borrowing is way down and likely to stay that way.
- Getting "back to where we were" will require an improbable return to levels of household borrowing seen at the height of the bubble.
- Bankruptcies, foreclosures, and credit defaults indicate the consumer is still sliding downwards.
- Recovery cannot yet be detected within the consumer and household data.
There is much to be thankful for today. The efforts that have been extended to rescue the financial system have bought some time, and I am extremely thankful for that time, because it is the most valuable asset of all.
However, the speed of the putative recovery, which strikes me as "too much, too soon," comes with the risk that the next phase of the crisis will be advanced upon us much faster than I had hoped or expected.
A rapid return to global GDP growth will assure that the next energy crisis will come sooner, faster, and harder than if we approached the future with greater caution and more planning.
Your faithful information scout,
Chris Martenson
Copyright 2009, Chris Martenson. All rights reserved.
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Comments
Hello Chris:
Super read, thank you!
Thanks Dr. Martenson.
I don't know what I would do without your fantastic work. Your work has changed my life and how I see the world. I hope you love what you do, because your damned good at it!
... or at least very different:
Your reports on what's going on behind the bluster and hype from Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue is very valuable, but I find myself looking for information on another aspect: if households are "bailing out" of the debt and spend paradigm, just what are they doing instead? Part of the answer is in such things as the rise in savings and the increase in bargain hunting, but there's more than that going on...
Enroll today to read more.
Thank-you, Chris, for the nudge and reminder of how precious a gift this extra "bought" time is, and that we need to take care not to waste it!
-pinecarr
Hi Chris,
I reeeaaaallly like the much higher-frequency articles, "tid-bits", etc. I don't know if this is a deliberate strategy on your part, or if you've taken to hooking up to a caffeine I.V. and forgot to disconnect it, but I think it is what we were all (or at least I) looking for...
Enroll today to read more.
Hey Dwig, in resonse I can say this, instead of making big efforts like in the past trying to figure out how to invest the markets I'm putting my work into local things like gardening, improving energy efficiency in my house, and maintaining personal fitness, as well as spreading awareness of the Crash Course etc...
Enroll today to read more.
Patrick Writes:
Hi Chris,
I reeeaaaallly like the much higher-frequency articles, "tid-bits", etc. I don't know if this is a deliberate strategy on your part, or if you've taken to hooking up to a caffeine I.V. and forgot to disconnect it, but I think it is what we were all (or at least I) looking for...
Enroll today to read more.
Chris all of your hard work has been great! Nice to see you bring out how this has bought us some more time as many really need this. One of these days this old economic bucket will have more leaks than fixes.