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EmailGrowth and the Upcoming Iranian War
Monday, July 12, 2010
Executive Summary
- A war with Iran seems likely before the US elections in November.
- The US has committed an act of war in deciding to embargo Iranian fuel shipments and international financial activities.
- The "urgency for dealing with Iran" is driven more by oil competition than military crisis.
- The US militarily occupies or diplomatically controls every strategically-located oil producer in the Middle East except for Iran.
- The most probable explanation for the sudden concern about Iran is likely centered over energy and the 'requirement' of growth that our economic and financial systems demand.
- Seeking militarily-secured access to oil halfway around the world is a weak strategy.
- An Iranian war has the potential to severely disrupt developed economies due to another wild oil-price spike.
I am troubled by the renewed beating of the Iranian war drums by the West and Israel. Troubled, in part, because the world economy needs a war with Iran right now like it needs a hole in the head. Or perhaps I should say a hole in the barrel, because the most likely immediate outcome of an Iranian war would be a diminution of oil traversing out of the Persian Gulf and a gigantic leap in the price of oil.
Both would add terrible stresses to the global financial system at this particular moment.
The last time I wrote about the urgent beating of the Iranian war drums was in December of 2009. Then, too, we saw a near-perfect coordination of the media in breathlessly "reporting" whatever the US and Israeli military elements wanted communicated. Basically it boiled down to something like this: "THE US MUST IMMEDIATELY DEAL WITH THIS URGENT THREAT RIGHT NOW - NO WAITING - IT IS THAT SERIOUS!!!" Sorry for shouting there, but that's how it came across to me before it all, oddly and quietly, slipped off of the headlines and out of our collective consciousness, until just recently.
Your faithful information scout,
Chris Martenson
Copyright 2010, Chris Martenson. All rights reserved.
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Comments
Good read. Utter mess!
I like the subject of the report Chris, and I agree with the idea that a war against Iran would be an absurd undertaking. But I question the idea that a war with Iran is "likely" before the next election in November. Not that it couldn't happen, but we've seen the drums beaten many times before in recent years ...
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Mr. Martenson,
I hope and pray that you are wrong in your assessments. Just in case though, when will your subsequent report be posted?
LG
If the dogs of war are let loose in Persia, that oughta just about do it for the economy. All other concerns aside (death and destruction of people & property), it would certainly kill my business tout suite. I guess I should deprioritize my purchase of a generator and move buying 2 years' wortha heritage seeds to the top of the preps list...
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Uff-da!.... with this kind of reading first thing in the am, who needs coffee?
Great report. In the subsequent report, perhaps a good follow-up should offer a short blurb on the nations and regions who import the largest amounts of Iranian oil (and thus would suffer the largest impact from a supply stoppage during any hostile action taken against Iran), and the most likely effects and reactions (economic or military in nature) to such an event...
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"What results from a large scale US attack on Iran will look a lot like a world war." - Patrick Lang (formerly head of intelligence analysis for the Middle East in the US Dept. of Defense)
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Lang's blog, Sic Semper Tyrannis, is an indispensable source for trying make sense of the domestic political, geo-political and military (but, it should be noted, not the energy) aspects of US entanglements in the Middle East and slightly beyond...
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Good report Doc and I appreciate you taking on this subject!
As to WHEN, I agree there's a good chance it will be before the elections. If not, it's going to happen within 12-18 months.
In all reality, the only way the US won't attack, is if Iran opens its doors, allows the US to come in and take control of their oil fields...
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Minor ty*Enroll to see Image*po in the second paragaph ofte Conclosion: 'debt overhand'' is prolly 'debt overhead'.
When those synapses get firing they're like lightning, branching all over. I propose that the following mention of Greenspan induced thoughts of 'underhand' which conflated with 'overhead' to yield 'overhand'...
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It's certainly true that war solves some domestic political problems. There is considerable evidence (and a new book) suggesting that FDR intentionally followed policies against the Japanese that encouraged the attack on Pearl Harbor to overcome his inability to get us out of the Depression after 8 years...
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J.Galt wrote:
That said, however, war is not an easy answer for Obama. It would split the Democrats and practically assure a primary challenge against him in 2012. While it might also lead to a split in the GOP (the neocons vs...
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