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EmailThursday, April 30, 2009
Executive Summary
- GDP report for 1Q2009 is a mess of Fuzzy Numbers.
- The surprising 2.2% increase in PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures, is discussed.
- Ostensible signs suggest that the bottom is in, but the numbers do not line up at all with hard, factual data.
- Sales tax receipts declined in first quarter.
- The GDP report for the first quarter of 2009 is in serious conflict with actual state sales tax data.
- Vehicle sales are down nearly twice as much as the 19% claimed by the BEA.
- The extent to which investors are fooled by these government reports is the extent to which they risk losing a lot of money in the stock market.
- Trust yourself.
As attendees of my seminars and regular readers know, I am deeply critical of the cheerleading spin cycle that exists between the government and the media, because it often inappropriately mixes facts, opinions, and beliefs. The aim, it would appear, is to foster optimism or confidence in the average investor.
Of course, as chronicled here many times, Wall Street lives off of the fees and products that it sells to retail investors, while the political machine favors a pacified, if not buoyant, electorate. Both of these aims are served by constantly spinning things to the upside.
While it is possible that "investors" are indeed optimistic, focusing on the "slightly more upbeat" report from the Fed and "signs that consumer spending rebounded," these claims deserve a bit of exploration.
Your faithful information scout,
Chris Martenson
Copyright 2009, Chris Martenson. All rights reserved.
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Comments
Super, super report. Thank you!*Enroll to see Image*
Frickin' Frackin' Fuzzy Number Mumbo Jumbo!
Thanks Chris for another look at the Bamboozling of The Sheeple! When will this crap end? How do they expect to solve problems when they are being worse than honest? I consider their numbers playing Treasonous!
Anyone know the way to Galt's Gulch?
Agreed! What do you want to bet the Gov't 'reasoned' that the bailout money given (loaned) to the car makers should constitute an equivalent in number of cars sold.
Here is another good one. I received 4 notices yesterday from BAC advising me (and my wife) of changes to our credit card contracts...
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I think I can explain some of the discrepency in the numbers - online sales (?).
We are an online based comapny and 49 of the states that buy our products (accounting for 95% of our sales) do not pay taxes on the sale of goods.
This would be one way the numbers are not adding up...
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Hello EndGamePlayer:
Do folks not pay when asked on their local (State Tax) form what they purchased online?
IMHO with the states, IRS and all tied into the banks it would be a huge risk to take. I was at a clients and he was telling me that his kids is a local cop, he can tap into about every database (cell, electric, atm) to look for a suspect on his tough box and even use a secured private/business network to get online...
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I think I am missing something, because I cannot find the reference for the Auto Sales Chart you used to counter the BEA report? Am I losing it or is it not in this report? Thanks.
Lucas Marshall
Luke - the data for the auto sales came from here: *Enroll to see Link*
Here's some more base data to accompany this report:
*Enroll to see Link*
CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) -- Nevada merchants sold $2.9 billion in goods during February for an 18.9 percent slump compared with the same month a year ago, according to a state report Thursday...
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Once again, a great piece of work Chris. Thanks.
One question, why can't someone take the government to task on the purposeful obfuscation of fact. Their actions are criminal in my mind? How far would a class action court case get?
E
Chris,
Thanks for the links.
Lucas