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EmailThe Future of Work
by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Executive Summary
- Many of today's current job positions will vanish as the debt that has made them possible retraces
- Future demand for work will come from non-financial sectors
- Cost management will re-assert it's importance on par with income growth
- Non-market and hybrid work models will grow to employ many more people than they do now
- Participation in social and capital networks (both physical and virtual) will become increasingly valuable
Part I
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II
The Vulnerability of Our Debt-Dependent Workforce
In Part I of The Future of Work, we examined the future trend of the US economy and found that ever-expanding debt has been the “engine” that has powered growth (as measured by GDP, gross domestic product) over the past 30 years. The productivity of debt has now fallen to zero, or perhaps even less than zero, which means that increasing debt no longer adds to GDP.
The structural weakness of this model is reflected by the diminishing number of jobs, and the declining ratio of payroll and employment to population and per capita measures of the economy.
Simply put, an economy that has become increasingly dependent on debt for its growth no longer creates jobs. Rather, the cost of servicing all that debt acts as unproductive friction.
Your faithful information scout,
Chris Martenson
Copyright 2011, Chris Martenson. All rights reserved.
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Comments
I always enjoy Mr. Smith's analyses and respect his thoughts. However, I disagree in that this Job Analysis assumes that the world will continue to focus on NEW BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGY = JOB CREATION for an exponentially advancing society...
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Hi Mirv:
Even though I wrote the piece you are critiquing, I have to say I share your frustrations with old ways of thinking, expecially the oft-repeated notion that technology will save us. That was certainly not my intent, and I realize after reading your commentary that I failed to differentiate between "Silicon Valley" as a symbol of "technology will save us" and Silicon Valley as an example of how innovation, dedicated people and capital can create new enterprises and work...
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thanks Charles
I am on the same page as you and was thinking of interpreting your silicon valley comments that way as well.
Readers in this forum have considered now the how and why of CM's observation about the next 20 years being different...
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Thank you for the article, Mr. Smith. As a college student trying to find his place in the world, I appreciate things thoughts that look at how to build a better tomorrow in a tomorrow of less. Communities of creativity, where simply being human itself is recognized as a source of value and potential, will certainly be something to look for...
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Mirv, thank you for your thoughtful reply. Once I read your comment, I realized I'd completely understated what we might call "The Prime Directive" which is localism networked with like-minded people and communities around the world (assuming an energy-hog Web can slim down power-wise...
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Charles
I’d like to offer a suggestion. In Part I you said:
CHS wrote:
The next chart reflects how every incremental increase in debt has had a diminishing effect on growth. Where $1 of debt once added 70 cents to GDP, now it adds basically nothing, or even reduces GDP...
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hi charles and all
i agree totally with what you are suggesting....i've been living this model for quite some time and can validate your thoughts...a foot here and there in different sectors of the economy.....and i agree that women's lib was nothing more than increasing the household wealth(or it takes 2 to pay for things now)...
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Travlin, excellent suggestion as you're right, there's an entire book (and a lot of unexplained assumptions) in those few sentences. I take it for granted 'we" here at CM.com grasp these concepts but some further explanation would also clarify my own thinking, for it's also possible we get a confluence of deflationary and money-printing dynamics...
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Thanks Charles - I really enjoyed reading this report.
Your report fits in perfectly with my thinking and goals. My job is completely expendable - let's just say it's one of those jobs that exist solely because of government regulations. Knowing that it may disappear at any time, that figured into my thinking last year of purchasing a home...
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Hi CHS,
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