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EmailThe Framework for Predicting Our Financial Future
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Executive Summary
- Exponential change 'speeds up'
- When it finally happens, change happens quickly
- Collapse progresses from the outside in
- Complex systems will become simpler when energy is scarce
- We fool ourselves at our peril
- The rules will be changed
- If you can't accurately assess the risks, don't play the game
- Investing in a structural bear market
Part I: How to Position Yourself for the Future: Step 1 - Financial Security
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: The Framework for Predicting Our Financial Future
Okay, assuming you have the basics covered, I now want to share with you my views on the markets and how things will unfold in the future. My assumption is that you have completed the full Crash Course (or one of the shorter versions) and are familiar with the exponential function and how it permeates our everyday life.
This framework is always subject to revision as new experiences and data points become available, but its central themes have been operative for me for several years.
Again, this body of work represents my personal observations, historical readings, and faith in the idea that cultures and laws may change but humans tend to behave in predictable ways. As always, I reserve the right to change my forecasts as new information becomes available.
Exponential Change 'Speeds Up'
Understanding the nature of the systems in which we live is the centerpiece of our analytical framework. And at the heart of that is the concept that we live in a world dominated by exponential functions and curves.
Your faithful information scout,
Chris Martenson
Copyright 2011, Chris Martenson. All rights reserved.
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Comments
Chris,
I've now been reading your stuff since March, and greatly appreciate your effective analysis of what the future might hold. This is a great site you run with an educated dialogue that I love. You've written several times, in several different times, that the next 20 years will be leaner than the last 20 (because growth in a closed system is never infinite) and so now is the time to store your proverbial nuts for winter...
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Thank you Chris for another well thought out and well presented warning for your readers.
SS
PS - Just checked my bank balance and found a deposit for $1.2 billion that I don't recall making. I'm thinking of keeping it, as I understand that these things cannot possibly be traced by anyone in the financial oversight industry...
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Chris...
These posts are both timely and useful (Parts I and II). Besides solid reasoning, the flow and tone to both articles suggest these pieces went through much thought and probably many, many iterations. I fully appreciate your effort...
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...how would you assess the markets gut reaction while purchasing 15 million new fire arms since Obama took office, and recently on Black Friday the purchase of 130,000 hand guns? Nationally, the United States citizenry has well over 80,000,000 (80 million!) weapons representing 47% of all households!!! I think the psychology of the market is on def-con HIGH ALERT!, that can't be good...
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Singlespeak, funny, just plane funny.
With regards to Chris spending more time here: He has to have a life too. I trust him, and I mean no disrespect to Nic......We have to do our work too. Part of my due dills is to find like minded folks like Chris in the event that Chris is...
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I have followed this site for about 3 years now and read as much as possible. A few times I have allowed my paid membership to expire and I say... I don't need this information. Then about a week later I'm having panic attacks and send in more money...
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I have to disagree a bit with others who want more of Chris's time on the blog. Today's article obviously has been brewing and building for some time. It took a lot of dedicated and concentrated effort to refine it to the point it is immensely meaningful to me and, I'm sure, many others...
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robert essian wrote:
With regards to Chris spending more time here: He has to have a life too.
I agree wholeheartedly with you and Doug. When someone gives a lot of himself, you don't want to burden him with the tedium of having to respond to every single question which is posed to him (good, bad, or indifferent) nor do you want to suck him dry with obligation...
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Chris wrote:
If things feel like they are going faster and faster, that’s because they are. There are exponential curves in technology and information that can leave you in the dust if you turn away for just a few moments.
Resources are running out faster, driven on both sides by depleting supplies and rising demand...
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