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EmailDeep Impact: Why The Deepwater Disaster Spells Serious Trouble
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Executive Summary
- We can say with absolute certainty that future oil exploration and development costs are going to rise.
- Our date with an oil supply shock now seems probable for the 2011 to 2012 timeframe.
- A new paradigm is emerging, in which downsizing trumps growth.
- A permanent energy crunch will lead to higher prices for all things connected to energy.
- It would not be too strong to suggest that our federal commitment to energy efficiency is a farce.
- In terms of personal planning, do not take anything for granted.
- While I am not sure how this will play out yet, I am quite comfortable stating that the age of abundance is drawing to a close.
While we are all still in some stage of shock over the BP gulf disaster – myself over the impacts on fragile marine ecosystems; others over the prospect that we might not be saved by technology after all – it’s worthwhile to begin assessing the impact that this disaster will have on future oil supplies and prices.
My view is that the economy, a complex system, owes its rich complexity to the very same thing as all complex systems: the constant throughput of energy.
Actually, because we have a debt-based economy that is predicated on and thoroughly reliant upon exponential growth, I can amend this to say that our economy owes its rich complexity to constantly increasing inputs of energy. And it’s not the total amount of energy that’s important here; it’s the total amount of net energy that matters. So I can amend the statement further to say that our economy owes its rich complexity to constantly increasing inputs of net energy.
If you understand this, you understand the heart of my analytical framework. I attribute much of my success in predicting the economic pain that we’ve been going through to the rigorous application of this line of thinking to the question, “Are we doing anything serious or credible in the way of rapidly increasing our energy efficiency?” Sadly, the answer to that question is a resounding, “No!”
Your faithful information scout,
Chris Martenson
Copyright 2010, Chris Martenson. All rights reserved.
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Comments
Thanks for the great report as usual Chris!
Just wanted to mention something interesting I heard on Japanese TV... apparently, we have to drill 1000 deepwater holes like those to find 3 producible oil wells, and I'm sure that's going to go down once they update their models to take into account "explosive wells"...
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Taking a year off my timeline to get fully prepared with this report huh? Oh well, I value your insight a great deal Dr. M. It's nice to have level headed commentary on the most pertinent issues of our time. You have helped me fully understand the exponential function and its collision course with finite Earth...
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Great report!
I've had my solar hot water system in for about a month now. I have 150 degree water with my oil burner totally bypassed! I have a meeting to see about solar electric in the morning.
Then some fireplace inserts, fruit trees, and security issues to take care of...
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Great read. The clash of perception and reality is just doen the road.........
Great report, thank you for all you do as usual.
I have one question though, well more like I’m curious to know what others (Dr M included, if he has the time of course).
I currently live in England, and will be for (potentially) 2 more years...
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that1guy-
Yes, I am very much in your same position. My job is stable for possibly one year so we're not sure where we'll be after that, and we rent an apartment that we cannot really modify much even if we did intend to stay for a long time...
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The last part of 2011 will be very interesting.
that1guy-
As nickbert alluded to, do those things that you can. Moving, especially if it's across countries can make that rather difficult. But even 'small' things like planting a garden are useful, evn if you can't take it with you. We started a garden last year and had decent success, but we laerned a lot, and this year's looks much better already...
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This whole thing is like watching a slow-motion train crash in a nightmare that plays over and over in my head.
Re-visitng my list (and checking it twice). Oddly, part of our post-oil plan was to be supplied enough here to sell "things & stuff" to people who did not prepare but now the thought is - what could they possibly have that we need or want?
I am so thankful for the insights I've gotten from this site - it has gotten us to this position of security...
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Great report Dr M! I am still surprised at the general complacency of these societal changing events that are unfolding. I do energy audits and weatherization for homes and business'. When I started the business, I was very naive in that I thought that people would really see the value in the retrofits that I recommend...
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