Is peak oil a myth?

Not this again......  Can I respectfully suggest to new members that before they start a new thread, especially on Peak Oil, that they search the archives of this site?  There's a google window at the very top right hand side of this window.

If you type "abiotic oil" there you will get this result:

Thanks for the tip.

Clicking on the links doesn't work...but I will search and find out.

Not really sure if the topic riled you up too much that you had to use big fonts to reply.

Won't proceed with this discussion anymore as it is clear that this is not the place, because it has already been discussed too much.

There is also a very high chance that I'll run into confirmation bias.

Sundarb:

I think it's just copying and pasting of text from another web site. I find I often have to paste the title of something I want to share, into NotePad, then copy it from NotePad into here, in order to get rid of the formatting. But not everyone does it. Also, if links don't work, I suggest you use your awesome Google-fu skillz 4 teh win!

That said, if there were really lots of oil and we'll never run out, that's a lot of petroleum geologists and corporations and governments and engineers and scientists who would be wrong. Now, while we here tend to be anti-establishment thinking, that doesn't mean we don't apply science and logic and critical thinking to the issues at hand.

Sadly, abiotic oil theory is just not factual, and even volcanologists will tell you so.

Poet

Sundarb,

This link from the Oil Drum is a helpful read.

~ VF ~

As I see it, there's too much discussion around and I don't want to get bogged down by disinformation.

I'll read and learn more.

Thanks for the links and pointers.

Sundarb,

I've been in that place where you sit right now. I know it isn't a comfortable place to be, and I hope you know how much I empathise with you. One of the best books to read about peak oil in my honest opinion, was written by Richard Heinberg and called The Party's Over. You can read roughly the first 60 pages of it if you click on this link here to its preview at Google Books.

I also found these two documentaries and this lecture below most helpful also : -

Crude Awakening

Farms For The Future

Arithmetic, Population and Energy ~ by Dr Albert A. Bartlett

Take Care,

~ VF ~

Vanity,

I bought the book recently and I have read a few pages. It is very interesting.

But quite a few concepts in learning about the economy is taking my time and I need to find time to read the Heinberg book.

Thanks for the videos, I'll watch it when I have time.

Sundarb

Even if Abiotic Oil Theory were true (which it is not)... Under that theory, well it's not coming up to the surface of the earth fast enough!

Just look at the chart below from Dr. Albert Bartlett (retired Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Colorado, at Boulder), from his famous lecture on Arithmetic, Population, and Energy.

This is the killer picture. It shows what we're up to as a human population growing exponentially (so far having added a billion people every 12 to 14 years since 1960), therefore requiring exponential growth in the consumption of natural resources, therefore requiring exponential growth in the discovery and extraction of natural resources - like oil.

Behold! Exhibit A.

Guess how much oil we need to discover to extract in the years 2010 to 2011. Yep, a new area equal to A-B-F-E, or the entire rectangle above.

Civilization is going to drastically change with declining oil supply to meet expanding oil demand. It is already drastically changing now.

For anyone who thinks we can change 7 billion people voluntarily, I present you Exhibit B.

Poet

Sundarb,

we love open inquiry here yet it needs to be pointed out that this subject of abiotic oil still needs someone to raise it using facts, logic and a lack of emotional content.  By way of example, let me begin with just the very first opening sentence of the linked content you posted:

The interests of the oil majors, of their bankers and of the UK and US power circles because it is to their advantage that nobody else gets independent control of energy.

First, this is not a complete sentence, so it lost me right off the bat.  

Second, assuming we mentally fill in the blanks, it has no less than three beliefs which are impossible to factually represent or verify contained within it.  The first is that the interests of the bankers, oil majors and USUK power circles are aligned, the second is that oil somehow represents the entire universe of 'energy' and the third is that 'nobody' else besides these interests has independent control.

This requires us to accept a view of the world where tightly interlocking interests have control and are in control and nobody else gets to play.  That's quite a lot for an opening sentence.

Point being, anyone who cannot write and separate their facts, opinions, beliefs and supposition about a subject as factual and important as energy, is not deserving of our time and attention.  Let's see someone do the whole abiotic thing with facts only.  Personally?  I have not yet seen anybody come close.

Hi Sundarb,

I propose that it's not necessary for us to argue about how oil is generated.  Sure, let's say that oil has an abiotic origin.  Or maybe oil is generated by the breakdown of organic matter.  Maybe both.  Maybe neither.

However oil gets there, we're using it up faster than it's being made.  

The world oil supply is nothing but a giant collection of individual oil fields.  And every oil field that has been tapped long enough has eventually dried up.  The oil country in Pennsylvania, where the first oil was discovered . . . we've pumped it dry.  Most of the early fields in Texas have become unproductive.  All of these many individual fields are in the hands of private owners who can tell you what happens to them.

The entire point of the 3E's is that modern economy requires an exponential increase in energy inputs.  A steady (even abiotic) supply isn't good enough.

So even if we assume that oil has a steady source of repleneshment (like trees, or fish, or topsoil), that's not good enough.  Our use of energy is exponentially increasing, and must continue increasing if we are to avoid economic convulsions.  If there is an abiotic source to oil, it's not exponentially increasing along with our consumption.  That spells trouble.