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peak oil debunked
I haven't written much about peak oil yet. The subject was so scary that I didn't dare to delve too deep into it. Scary mainly for all the predictions of massive extinction and a loss of technology. My main thoughts were: nobody can predict the future, and a lot of things aren't as clear as the doom thinkers make them seem, and if this worst case scenario is indeed what is inevitably going to happen, I want to die! No point fighting what's going to happen, and no hanging on to my live.
So to me it only makes sense too enjoy life now, when it's still good. It occurs to me that it is hard to imagine how the distruction of all the splendor arround me could ever occur. I see the developments of new technologies, I see people changing their ways and sometimes it almost seems that even politician are able to learn their lessons. But even without that the sun still rises and live just seems to go on, with or without oil.
When I was confronted with yet another depressing peak oil movie, a looked around on the web and found this website: http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/. It proves my point that the future is uncertain, because the figures over there are no worse than those of the doom thinkers, and they show posibilties of a much brighter future. Finally, I can catch some sleep again.
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You've got it backwards unless you love strip malls. Peak oil won't destroy the splendor. Peak oil might help save what's left of the splendor.
I would question that oil companies will universally profit from the idea of peak oil, for several reasons. One, the price at which oil can be sold may increase, but so will the cost of pumping it out of the ground. The profit margins of companies may become seriously squeezed. Oil companies make the most money when prices are falling, because their bottom line increases while they are able to slowly feather their sale price lower.
Two, the stock price of oil companies depends on their ability to be profitable in the future. The profitability of traditional Western oil companies is in great doubt in an era of depleting oil reserves, considering that even though the oil companies may have pieces of paper saying that they "own" their oil fields, most of this oil lies in other countries. In the event of a shortage, the value of oil cannot be measured merely in dollars and cents: it becomes invaluable. As a country, can you really put a price on having enough oil to run your navy and keep the lights on in your capitol? It is doubtful that many countries would allow private oil companies to cart away unlimited quantities of their national oil, regardless of the amount of green paper which we offer in return. Even if an oil company "owns" the foreign field, many oil fields would simply be nationalized by the countries in which they lie, leaving the oil companies out in the cold after having invested billions of dollars to develop them.
Just because the price of something goes up, doesn't mean that it will be profitable to be in the business...
Whole-hearted agreement with LemonYellowschwin.
To me, every time I see a housing development go in over a tract of farm-land I wince.
We've destroyed as much of the splendor as we could, starting at the most beneficial spots for life to sustain itself; headwaters of major rivers; which were once rife with fish, wildlife and massive tracts of arable land.
Now? McMansions.
Cheers LYS, well said.
Aaron
"Subject to no government but that of my own conscience."
"Q: Who profits from the widespread belief of the peak oil theory?"
JAG..... that is old thinking, thinking that everything must be done for profit... It's thinking like that that got us into this mess in the first place. It's high time we start thinking about doing things because they are worth doing, not because they're a buck in it.
Mike
PS I wish people would stop calling PO a theory. It's as much a theory as the round Earth theory!
Peace on Terra http://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/ http://groups.yahoo.com/group/roeoz/
The Industrial Revolution created a lot more than strip malls. Certainly there has been plenty of bad with the good; such as it ever was. But I think those people who really embrace end of world theories such as peak oil with relish have taken no meaningful stock of what we have, what we will lose, and how our children will live and die. You would sell all your natural splendor for a crash cart.
Trust in God but row for shore.
Hi Dave S,
I see you are a relatively new poster, welcome, and thanks for sharing your thoughts. I would have to disagree with the characterization of peak oil as being an "end of world theory." Peak Oil is merely a description of how oil will run out, and a suggestion of the problems that will occur when supply does not meet demand. While the consequence of this will be uncomforable if we try to hold on to the way things were on the up side of the curve, if we accept the facts (and I'm not sure what part of PO you doubt) of the downside of the curve and plan and act accordingly (change the money system, the food system, the transport system, etc) then we can all still enjoy the world, and even, as Dr. Martenson suggests, have more fulfilling lives.
I also concur with Aaron Moyer and LYS, and add that the sooner we end the destruction of the natural world that cheap oil has caused the better off we will be and the better able we will be to create a world that is in harmony.
This time, like all times, is a very good one, if we but know what to do with it. --Ralph Waldo Emerson
Woupiestek,
Again and again I put this film on thread after thread throughout CM.com for new arrivals and, not a single person can question any of the math. If you haven't seen this before, I feel this is the reason you're at odds about the relevants of Peak Oil, for which I'm sure you'll later agree, hasn't been a theory for a very long time :-
Arithmetic, Population And Energy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=PlayList&p=5A77AC29E2E95E23&index=0&playnext=1
...I'm also from the UK, and know that this film below will have more answers to your questions :-
A Farm For The Future
http://www.viddler.com/explore/PermaScience/videos/4/
Trust me, when I speak for others here. Your quality of life will be more fullfilling if you set your sites firmly into the future along the pathways you'll find amongst friends on this site...
Best,
Paul
Helen Caldicott ~ If You Love This Planet ~ A must see lecture that is perfect for our time ... http://www.nfb.ca/film/if_you_love_this_... - Rise like Lions after slumber - In unvanquishable number, Shake your chains to earth like dew - Which in sleep had fallen on you - Ye are many - they are few - Shelley
Dr. Martenson has made me a believer in peak oil, but one thing that bothers me about the theory is the following question:
Q: Who profits from the widespread belief of the peak oil theory?
A: The oil companies, of course.
But I think to be prudent, you have to do what you can to prepare for the ramifications of higher energy prices. I wish I could ignore it, because life would be a whole lot simpler.
I understand your opinion Jag and if oil production could be increased to fill demand indefinitely than I would completely agree the perception of low supplier can drive costs up. However, peak oil does much much more than just work supply and demand curves, it would be a quantum change on how this world and the people on it live, work, play, our industries would have enormous changes and most of all it would change the political power structure world wide forever. Those in power due to oil do not want there to be a perception of that.
I'm reading into the gaps of peoples perceptions and feel that a 'Must' read has to be Richard Heinbergs excellent book :-
The Party's Over
http://www.amazon.com/Partys-Over-Fate-Industrial-Societies/dp/0865715297
I strongly suggest anyone finding this thread should go and buy a copy today.
This also defines him well :-
Richard Heinberg's Peak Everything
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybRz91eimTg
Best,
Paul
Helen Caldicott ~ If You Love This Planet ~ A must see lecture that is perfect for our time ... http://www.nfb.ca/film/if_you_love_this_... - Rise like Lions after slumber - In unvanquishable number, Shake your chains to earth like dew - Which in sleep had fallen on you - Ye are many - they are few - Shelley
Dr. Martenson has made me a believer in peak oil, but one thing that bothers me about the theory is the following question:
But I think to be prudent, you have to do what you can to prepare for the ramifications of higher energy prices. I wish I could ignore it, because life would be a whole lot simpler.
Captain Sheeple