Near term gold: goin' up or down? Gotta crystal ball anyone?

I've decided to not wait for dips in price, and just purchase gold whenever I have the spare cash to do so.  I'm sure there's a good possibility of the price dropping a little lower in the near future, but IMO there's some risk in waiting for the price to drop significantly.  If one was doing it from the standpoint of a trader it may be different, but I assume your probably buying to hold long-term?  So IMO I wouldn't wait too long.  For one, there's no guarantee it'll drop much in price anytime soon.  And second, if we see another massive economic shakeup the possibility exists that physical gold bullion may become near impossible to get.  After all it was just around this time last year where the price of gold had gone down, and yet very few places had any available for sale....

- Nickbert

Disclosure:

Today i bought 20 1oz Silver coins: Liberty's and three 10 oz silver bars 2 Englehard and one Rarities Mint. The Engles were pricier but are more respected. I dont care for current price as silver were easily break its old $54 record.

The asians are bidding it up. The fed is trying to bid it down.  I don't know who will win, but the Fed is up against some deep pockets, and investors trying to take delivery of Comex gold aren't getting delivery. because apparently they are shorting gold that's not in the vaults.

Make sure you are buying physical gold and taking possession of it.

From an investment standpoint (not a survival standpoint) I don't think gold will be there for you when it counts. I remember last year when gold declined with the stock market, many here were perplexed by its drop. Gold will disappoint again in the next panic selloff of everything that can be sold. I'll be looking to lock-in a good price on paper gold and silver at that point, and convert it to PMs post-crash when they become available again (and the dealer premiums are more reasonable). 

I was tempted to buy more PMs just recently because I thought the markets were changing, but it was just more of the inflation-trade hysteria so I didn't. If I had more than just the bare minimum emergency PM allocation (10%), then I would be selling gold right now.

The safe investment is not the one that you think is safe, but rather the one you that you think is worthless.

"The safe investment is not the one that you think is safe, but rather the one you that you think is worthless."  A statement to ponder.

I guess that has been historically true ("buy straw hats in winter") but still..you wonder if the paradigm changes. Oh, no, that almost sounds like "this time it's different" but...one of these times, it's going to be different, right?

Which one...

SG

Earthwise

No crystal ball.  I dont like the idea of trying to time things.  I think paper gold is being bought in large quantities, but very few people in my circles have bought physical gold.  My opinion is that you should purchase gold now and hold onto it.  If it loses value in the short term, don't worry about it.  

JAG

I love how you stick to your guns.  You're the lone wolf on this website and its nice to hear your contrarian view point.

Brian

Yep.  I am buying physical silver (already have my allocation of gold) with whatever caishe I'm not using for other hardcore preps.  FWIW.  YMMV.

Second that.  I love people who have the courage of their convictions, even if I should happen to disagree.  Character.  I happen to 1/2 agree and 1/2 disagree (or more accurately, no know enough to knowledgeably agree) w/JAG.  But he's always stimulating worthwhile discussion, which is invaluable...

Viva -- Sager

There will always be dips.  Buy on them.  Gold's getting a little overheated so a pullback is likely ... but I'm staying in my physical gold for the long term.

Greg Wheldon has provided some excellent short term advice when I used his service in the past.  You can check out his Metal Monitor.  The subscription price is very steep now but for the short term, use the Free Trial.  It costs you nothing.

http://www.weldononline.com/MetalMonitor.aspx

For long term, I like Jim Sinclair ... plus, he's a old school character ... my kinda guy.

http://jsmineset.com/

Follow the gold prices here:

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Look at some of the historical charts to get some perspective regarding gold price movements before buying.

When you see the price drop ... far ... straight down ... like a fishing line ... at least a few percent ... consider buying.  If it drops below $1050, I might pick some up.  If it drops below $1000, I'd definitely pick some up.  If it drops further after you've bought it, don't worry ... it'll be back.

Here's an article with some basic observations about recent market fluctuations in gold.

http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=8390

Buying another 10 silver libertys tomorrow muhuhuhuhhahhaa

Hey thanks guys.....your kind words made my night!

All the best