The Fourth Turning

Neil Howe is a generational theorist who has been talking about the upcoming crisis since 1997.  Here is a link to a video if a show he did in 1997.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_WXBt3Pa0g

It really does sound accurate as a foreboding.

Here is his blog just this past month he lists a series of specific issues that seem to be heralding where we are going next, with this interesting bit about the gap in world view between the general public and the CFR.  Some of it seems obvious, as peons will worry more about how to feed themselves and their children than will those for whom the money always flows.  

http://blog.lifecourse.com/category/turnings/4th-turning-crisis/ 

4. On opinions about America’s future, a growing rift is now emerging between the experts and the public. Today’s experts tend to focus on near-term and on a fairly narrow range of conventionally defined outcomes—and they are generally more optimistic. Today’s public tends to focus on the long-term and on a fairly broad range of possible options—and the public is generally more pessimistic. On the economy, experts talk a lot about the next year or two and they typically apply an aggregate demand model that has been tested over the normal  postwar recessions. Most of them are projecting a steady if not dramatic recovery. The public—and many less conventional experts—focus more on changes in household and corporate balance sheets, on structural changes in consumer behavior (toward more savings and less risk), and on the long-term erosion of institutional trust. They’re interested in longer-term outcomes, like whether I can change jobs, retire on time, or feel good about my kids’ prospects. And, with all that on their minds, they’re coming to more pessimistic conclusions about the economy’s direction.

When  Pew compared the foreign-policy views of the public to the views of the 642 members of the  Council of Foreign Relations, they found a similar rift. On almost every issue, the CFR members were more optimistic—and their optimism had declined less during the 2000s decade—than the public. The public, for example, is much more worried about  nuclear Iran,  North Korea, the rising power of China, the tension between Russia and its neighbors, and terrorist attacks on America than the CFR members. They are also more worried about how foreign policy can save their jobs and prevent illegal immigration. The list of issues that worried the experts more than the public (global warming,  instability in Pakistan) was much shorter.

 

But in the end I am not sure I understand which way he is projecting this ball to bounce.  

Thought I’d share the video though, pretty cool how accurate he was.