The Definitive GOLD's Near-Term Outlook Thread

Thanks Saturday....

One question though, if China defaulted on it's short position who would get burned on the physical delivery of silver?

Hi Folks-

   I thought this article by Rob Kirby on Financial Sense, was intriguing.  It is "The Game Has Changed: The Achilles Heel Exposed", at  http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/kirby/2009/1001.html.  Check out the overlay of charts for gold and silver he shows, for Sept 8 200.  It is pretty amazin; they almost match!  Per Rob Kirby:"

"In a discussion I had earlier this week with Dr. Jim Willie, we discussed how the prices of gold and silver have been arbitrarily managed for years.  In this discussion, I contended that, while the prices of gold and silver have been closely managed, the growing “off-take” of physical bullion is inflicting great damage on price managers.  We can see manifestations of this reality in that price corrections [sell-offs] are much shallower and shorter lived than they were even last year.  Jim asked me if I could provide any “hard data” or minutia showing the amounts of physical metal being taken off the market in recent weeks.

Unfortunately, I cannot. 

The reason for this was best encapsulated in comments by GATA Secretary / Treasurer Chris Powell back in April, 2008 in Washington, D.C. when he opined:

“Indeed, the disposition of Western central bank gold reserves is a secret more closely guarded than the blueprints for the manufacture of nuclear weapons.”

With the micro details being withheld or obscured, the proof to the thesis that price managers are hemorrhaging physical bullion is more “macro” in nature. So here’s a review of the macro picture [or “known-knowns” in Rumsfeld-ian double-speak], starting with a daily chart of gold for Sept. 8, 2009:" 

 

[Please see charts on website; I had trouble pasting them here]

 

"The charts from Sept. 8 were not cherry picked – they typify the intra-day “rigged” relationship of gold and silver over the past number of years."

I thought I would give this dinosaur of a thread a little bump.

From what I have been reading, the near-term picture of gold, and especially silver, are not looking so hot.

First we have GDX breaking the trendline and looking rather weak:

My expectations are along these lines (I am long GDX as I am typing this).

 

link

and then we have the gold/silver ratio looking very bullish

My understanding of this is as the G/S ratio climbs, gold will fall in price, but silver will fall even faster and farther. Typically a rise in G/S signals a coming decline in the stock market.

I have no sentiment information for the gold market, so I have no idea how big this prospective move down in gold could be. My guess is a descent buying opportunity is ahead, but not for under $1000/oz, not for a while at least.

Things are starting to get interesting though.

Disclosure: I hold some PMs and paper gold, but I find the inflation trade very boring.

My plan has been to stay on the sidelines until October passed and then jump back into GDX, (and one other mining stock) and several energy sector stocks I've been looking at.

I expect that there is a significant correction coming in the next few months but I'm not so sure that energy and PM/mining prices won't continue their upward trend.

I suck at market timing so I'm going to just have to learn to live with an eye to the long term. 

It would be nice though if the market correction started in earnest this week.  It would make things SOOO much easier :-)

I read a techincal analysis over at Zerohedge two days ago that said that the next near term bottom on gold would be established at $986/oz.  Take that for whatever it's worth.

I have a brain that's good at remembering factoids, but not their sources.  With that as a preface, take this fwiw.  I remember reading within the past couple weeks that 1020-30 would be a good buying range.  I want to buy some more, but think I'll wait it out.  If it drops a lot, I'll see it as a buying opportunity.

Doug

“The dollar isn't being "diluted" at all. In fact the amount of DOLLARS DESTROYED AS A RESULT OF BAD DEBT significantly exceeds all new dollars created and the amount of further debt losses is in the trillions of dollars which will make every remaining dollar worth even more. That is what happens in a DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL and we are now in the midst of the biggest deflationary spiral in history which is quite good for the dollar. When interest rates rise, the dollar will soar even further.

The last thing in the world an intelligent investor would want to buy right now is precious metals, particularly gold at its ridiculously high bubble price which fortunately is now falling daily and has fallen 3.8% in the past week.”

Would some one please explain the fallacy or logic of this argument I happened to find in response to an article titled “Decline and fall of the U.S. dollar?  Thank you

Hi All,

A newbie Here.  If this has been discussed ad-nausea, I apologize.

I am moving most of my Retirement (401K, IRA) savings into PMs.

I am able to purchase Gold EFTs ( Like IAU/SGOL ... and others) .  This doesnt seem as favorable

as holding the gold in person, however,  I am wondering if EFTs are considered to be a 'good' way to invest into

PMs and what the perceived downsides would be.

Are there better options given that the retirement funds need to stay with the retirement funds managment.

Thx

In my opinion, an ETF is a good trading vehicle, while teh metal is a good investment vehicle. What I mean is ETFs are not guaranteed; there are a lot of stories about multiple holders of the metal, and you cannot go to theETF and ask for your share in gold bars. The ETFs share the common problem of any stock in that shares could go up in smoke. But if you are doing short term trading and keep an eagle eye on it it is an easy way to have some PM exposure in a 401K. You can also consider gold related stocks such as mining companies, etc.

You can hold physical gold in an IRA but it must be held by an intermediary - you cannot physically have it yourself. There are only a few comapnies that do that. Though safer than an ETF, you are still a long step away from being to take delivery of the gold when you want it.

Anyone know why gold jumped up so much today?