Another 700 Million barrels of oil found in the Gulf!! Peak Oil...really?

Now let me see........  that should last the US...  oh, maybe... what?  THIRTY FIVE DAYS???

Sadly,  700 million barrels is less than 100 days worth of oil imports.  I am active in the ND fields(Bakken range) and we have hopes. But, realistically, even if we can get to 1 million barrels per day production, this only replaces about 15% or less of oil imports.  Well less than 10% of total  US consumption.  Peak oil is a term which implies cheaply recoverable crude.  Our crude costs at least $40 / barrel to get out of the ground  and we aren't going to sell it at COST!  YES, the cheap oil is DONE.  We have skyrocketed past cheap, peak, oil.  Get used to paying real money at the pump, or stop using fuel.

When Saudi pumps the last of their cheap oil, they will be pumping heavy crude which needs a lot of steam for extraction.  This may also cost $30-$40/barrel to extract.  Worse yet, it is heavy crude, and has very low percentage of light fractions,  ie diesel/gasoline etc.  Saudi heavy crude has half the useable light fraction of ND oil.  YES, cheap gas is DONE.  If oil can stay at over $100 per barrel there will be more economically feasible resources found.   But remember,  that ain't 25cent a gallon gas!  It will be $6/gallon.

PS  Japan will be in the hydrocarbon market soon(nuclear related issues), in a big way, and along with continued Chinese purchasing pressure on World oil supplies  $6/gallon gas may seem a bargain in a few years.  I am old enough to remember the 1973 oil/gasoline rationing we had here in the USA.

I work with ND oil, the Bakken formation.  It is sad but many people think we are sitting on another Saudi there.  Nuh Uhn.   We will be lucky, as a state, to hit 1million barrel per day levels of production.  We have real WATER shortages up here.  Even if we got to 1million bpd that is a small few per centage points of US daily consumption.  It gripes me that so few Americans really know actual numbers.  THANK YOU for making the above point!!!!

Too bad all of it is sludge on the bottom and in the bayou.

 

Over the past six years, I have thought that peak oil would eventually easily be recognized for what it is, an observation over countless fields. It is so basic, but there is always such opposition. It still genuinely surprises me. 

In CM's book he talks about the possibility of a fairly abrupt awakening to the reality of peak oil, sparked by hoarding of former exporters, similar to what Russia did with wheat last year. I still wonder if peak oil will ever be recognized amongst the masses. I could see $300 oil, with people still talking about "big oil" screwing them, or China buying up our oil, or some other nonsense to avoid dealing with the real issue.

I had a conversation with a middle school teacher the other day about high gas prices, and he told me that the oil companies were hoarding oil to keep the price high. I told him that the major independent oil companies (Mobil, Shell, Chevron, BP etc..) only control a very small fraction of the reserves. The state owned companies such as Saudi Aramco control the bulk. I went on to tell him about the extraction and depletion curve that most oil fields follow, and where we are today in regard to discoveries and production figures. He had this blank look on his face, and he said, "I believe in conspiracy theories, and I think the oil companies are ripping us off!" (paraphrased) I'm pretty sure I lost him at state owner oil companies.

By the way, Mike, thank you for constantly responding to the peak oil deniers.

Phil

  

Do you understand Peak Oil?  How about how Peak Oil effects the economy and vice versa?  Refresher time...

Net Energy = usable energy, or the energy remaining after energy input to extract and process fossil fuel

Net Energy can decrease for many reasons.  Some have already been mentioned, but to summarize, net energy decreases when...

1) less barrels available to extract

2) increasing input energy cost to extract and process

Also, if 2 is increasing at a faster rate than 1, then you can find more stuff to drill, yet have less fuel to use.  Diminishing returns.

Now throw in the economy.  If there's any chance to "work off our financial excesses" then the economy has to literally be booming for a good decade.  That requires exponentially more net energy.  It's just silly talk.  The economy is not going to boom like it's 1999 (for a full 10 years) and even if it could, there is not enough extra net energy to support it.

No matter where you are politically, the country needs to balance priorities.  I'm not sure what's more difficult - the balancing or actually agreeing on what are our priorities.  

Obama can be blamed for many things, but decreasing net energy is not one of them.  Blame him for not investing the banker's trillions into alternative energy, rather than banks.  Blame him for not being honest that the economy is not going to "get back to where it was," and if you do, be sure to blame every other politician outside of Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders.  Blame him for not pushing to reenact Glass-Steagal.  There are better choices than just blaming him for getting in the way of drill baby drill.

Lucky for us that isn't the only oil well... it's an additional source.  Your comment is like me saying, "You only made $100 today?  How can you possibly live off $100" LOL!

Every additional source we find adds to our current production totals. Keep in mind I'm not in complete denial that there will be an eventual limit reached in oil production and that we could be at risk of hitting that number.  (And if that is what is truly meant by Peak Oil then count me in...)  What I'm saying is that there is lots of oil left and not all of it is hard to refine shale.  If we had the drilling permits to find it, we would not only increase our oil production domestically, but also have a better idea of how close we are to an actual Peak Oil situation.  Right now it's still just a guess based on incomplete numbers.

Looks like a little bargaining going on in addition to partial denial.

Let's do a complete refresher then...
1) Take into account all domestically available oil, (a number which we don't have yet since Obama hasn't released exploritory permits)
2) If you throw in the economy realize you are throwing in OPEC price manipulation primarily who's influence would increasingly deminish with each added domestic oil source.
3) People are calculating gasoline prices at the current taxed level.  It's an intristic tax which means it's a tax on a tax, on a tax, on a tax...  Gasoline is only $0.40-$1.00 a gallon without all the taxes.
4) Obama is subsidising additional energy with tax dollars.  Take away those subsidies and it's a HUGE loss which places a ton of blame directly on him as wasting energy.  Oil however, even with the dangers of Peak Oil is still a money makerand net gain.  (And Bernie Sanders' ideology is directly to blame since Socialism is the main cause of all these taxes and drains on the economy and business.)
5) Glass-Steagal was a MARXIST policy and should never be reenacted.  (I'm seeing a trend here though...  Both Republicans and Democrats that have taken part in Marxist programs which have destroyed our economy and caused prices for things like oil to skyrocket.)

[/quote] TommyHolly

Let's do a complete refresher then...
1) Take into account all domestically available oil, (a number which we don't have yet since Obama hasn't released exploritory permits)
2) If you throw in the economy realize you are throwing in OPEC price manipulation primarily who's influence would increasingly deminish with each added domestic oil source.
3) People are calculating gasoline prices at the current taxed level.  It's an intristic tax which means it's a tax on a tax, on a tax, on a tax...  Gasoline is only $0.40-$1.00 a gallon without all the taxes.
4) Obama is subsidising additional energy with tax dollars.  Take away those subsidies and it's a HUGE loss which places a ton of blame directly on him as wasting energy.  Oil however, even with the dangers of Peak Oil is still a money makerand net gain.  (And Bernie Sanders' ideology is directly to blame since Socialism is the main cause of all these taxes and drains on the economy and business.)
5) Glass-Steagal was a MARXIST policy and should never be reenacted.  (I'm seeing a trend here though...  Both Republicans and Democrats that have taken part in Marxist programs which have destroyed our economy and caused prices for things like oil to skyrocket.)

[/quote]

1. http://www.netl.doe.gov/KeyIssues/secure_energy3b.html

"The U.S. contains some of the world's most thoroughly explored oil and gas basins. Most of the accessible, high-quality oil and natural gas have already been or are being produced, and remaining resources are increasingly concentrated in geologically challenging and environmentally sensitive settings."

2. OPEC can influence prices, but they do not have quite the spare capacity as commonly thought. I would bet that they produce less to save for their own population or future generations. There is a good article at the oil drum on spare capacity.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8007#more

3. Crude oil makes up the majority of the cost of gasoline. Below is a quote from this USA Today article. http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-05-24-gas-breakdown_N.htm

The biggest factor in the skyrocketing price of gasoline is the historic ascent of crude oil, which has surged from $45 per barrel in 2004 to more than $135 this past week, setting new record highs all the while.

In the first quarter of this year, based on a retail price of gas that now seems like a steal — $3.11 a gallon — crude oil accounted for all but about a dollar, or 70%, of the cost, according to the federal government.

The rest is a complex mix of factors, from the cost of turning oil into gas to taxes to marketing costs to, sometimes, nothing more than the competitive whims of your local gas station owner.