planning

 I have been contemplating how to deal with the current economic issues we face and what the best solution is to face up to the coming turbulent times. I have come to the conclusion that I need to build a resilient community in my area. This is how I came to that conclusion. 

There are basically four options, as I see it, for preparing. 

This post has been elevated from the enrolled forums section. It is the introductory piece of a series on 'How to construct an Investment Portfolio' authored by user Travlin (enrolled members can access the entire series here).

Investment planning should be kept as simple as possible while still meeting your needs. As a self-directed investor, it is important to me to evaluate the situation, define what I want to accomplish, and decide how to get there. I find that putting this in writing helps me organize and clarify my thoughts into a useful assessment. This does not have to follow a rigid format as long as it is coherent. From this I can begin to structure the portfolio I need, but that is a separate topic.

Below is my latest assessment. It has three parts

1. Situation Analysis
2. Investment Needs
3. Investment Strategy

This is offered as a model to show you one way it can be done. There are many others. Feel free to use this model as is, or revise it to suit your views and circumstances.   read more »

Here is another past Martenson Report that was previously available only to enrolled members but is now available to all registered users. 

The Federal Reserve Plays A Dangerous Game

I wrote this report over a year ago, in March, 2008.  The recession was underway, Bear Stearns had just been rescued, Lehman Bros. was still in business, and the stock market had not yet dropped significantly.  Thankfully, a systemic banking crisis did not come to pass during that time. 

I encouraged readers to take specific actions to secure their well-being in case of such a crisis.  Pay close attention to the very end of the report, where I offer suggestions that I strongly recommend you consider.  These recommendations are ones that I stand by today.

Most of us are well into our SHTF planning and preparations, but I know from natural distaster evacuations that many people forget to include their family pets in their plans and prep. So what all have you guys thought about or done to make sure your pets are safe if TSHTF?

Here's what we've done or are planning to do for our two (indoor only) cats:

Becca encouraged me to share this here, and I finally found some free moments to do it.  For background, there are six of us - myself, my husband, and four kids ages ten and under.   We live in northern New England where winter temperatures often stay below freezing for days or weeks.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Be careful what you believe.

A television ad for Morgan Stanley’s brokerage service flickers across the screen, showing a retired couple walking across a beach with a dog and their grandchildren.  Smiles and ease and comfort drip off the screen.  It is a happy, shiny future that they are selling.  Separately, a letter goes out from Morgan Stanley to their private clients warning of a “50% chance of a systemic crisis."  Which do you believe? 

Executive Summary

• Keeping a wide-angle view on this developing crisis is the only way to avoid being whipsawed, and the stakes have never been higher (at least in our lifetime).
• The US financial markets, and probably the world’s, peered over an abyss on the night of Sunday March 16, 2008, but were rescued by very unusual and concerted official actions.
• On the “happy, shiny” side of the equation, we have the fact that stocks mysteriously went up immediately on the open after the announcement of the collapse of Bear Stearns, and have continued up since.
• On the “Cold, Hard Facts” side of the ledger, indicating that a particularly nasty recession is already underway, here is the recent data:

• Housing data was similarly unambiguous.  Sales were down, mortgage rates were up, foreclosures up, construction down, and prices slid at a rate “not seen since the Great Depression.”
• Unemployment claims ratcheted higher.
• Consumer confidence hit a 35-year low.
• Global trade has decelerated to a standstill.
• Retail sales are in the cellar, plunging by more than expected, and auto sales are fading fast.
• The Empire state index clocked in at a record low.
• T-Bills gave a very strong recession reading, by briefly trading at 0.21%.
• Tax receipts for the federal government are down by 12% over the past year.

• You can choose to believe that the worst is behind us (stocks), or you can choose to believe the facts (everything else). But be sure to choose carefully, because the penalty for being wrong here will be particularly steep.  
• Simple preparations will go a long way toward mitigating the effects of a possible systemic financial crisis.