beliefs

A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.

Link - Second Leg of the Housing Decline Set To Begin

Executive Summary

• Housing data is weak and just took a turn for the worse
• Stimulus efforts were essential to keep housing propped up
• The stimulus has ended
• QE and stock market prices are correlated
• What’s coming next
• What you should do

We bought our house in November of 2009.  This will turn out to have been a very bad financial decision.  We’ll be underwater on that purchase for a very long time; maybe forever (or until Bernanke’s great experiment takes the final turn towards massive currency destruction and inflation; whichever comes first).     read more »

Monday, June 28, 2010

Executive Summary

• Housing data is weak and just took a turn for the worse
• Stimulus efforts were essential to keep housing propped up
• The stimulus has ended
• QE and stock market prices are correlated
• What’s coming next
• What you should do

We bought our house in November of 2009.  This will turn out to have been a very bad financial decision.  We’ll be underwater on that purchase for a very long time; maybe forever (or until Bernanke’s great experiment takes the final turn towards massive currency destruction and inflation; whichever comes first).   

Of course, we bought it knowing that.  Our decision to buy centered on our valuing time more than money.  What I mean by this is that all of the changes that we are now fully engaged in around our house, ranging from insulating to installing solar panels to putting in a fruit orchard, all take time.  Time became more important to us than money, and so we bought.

But for every nation dealing with the after-effects of a housing bubble, what matters is that house prices start to climb again.  Of course, the housing bubble was just a symptom of the larger and far more damaging credit bubble, but housing is a useful indicator for where we are in the larger credit-bubble story.

Because of its importance to both the bubble’s bursting and its eventual repair, I track housing for signs of true recovery.

In the interest of starting an entertaining discussion (things have been a little slow around here lately) I wanted to ask everyone to participate in an informal survey. The objective is quite simple:

List five to ten things that you believe to be truths in the present moment of your life.

Assume that you are on your deathbed at this very moment:

Enrolled members should have received this report on Sunday via e-mail.  If you did not, please contact us so we can make sure that you don't miss future reports. 

If you are a registered user (not yet enrolled), this report is well worth upgrading for. 

The Coming Collapse

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Executive Summary

• Underlying beliefs can get in the way of action.
• The status quo is unsustainable.
• We face a future filled with "less" on many levels.
• Surplus energy determines social complexity.
• Peak Oil has passed and there is no return to the old economy.
• We still have some choice in how this change plays out.
• We must continue reformulating our beliefs and moving towards action.

The topic of this Martenson Report is one of the most important we will ever cover. My mission is to help you see that change is coming - potentially highly disruptive change - far enough in advance so that the opportunity exists to make gradual changes on your own terms.

Standing in the way of our taking actions are our beliefs, which we have formed over a lifetime of observation. For example, if I show someone forty-two very compelling graphs of Peak Oil, but the person remains unconvinced (as evidenced by their lack of action), I invariably find that they hold an underlying belief which is in conflict with the data. Most often, that belief turns out to be "technology will save us." This is a powerful belief, because it has been reinforced by a lifetime filled with the most exceptional technological progress ever seen in human history. So it won't matter if I show that person one graph, or ten, or forty-two, or a hundred. That stuff is just data. We take actions based on our beliefs. But if a belief is in conflict with data, the belief wins every time.

Every day I try to convince people that one era is drawing to a close and a new era is beginning. The lure of the old way is very strong. It is constantly reinforced by a media machine and an interlocking institutional framework that are fully dedicated to preserving the status quo.

From my point of view, the status quo does not have a future. It was unsustainable from the start, and even if we manage to resuscitate it for a few more years, nothing will change that fact. Worse, every attempt to sustain the unsustainable results in squandering our precious remaining time and resources, which means that with these attempts, we relegate ourselves and our children to a future of decreased prosperity.

Our economy is in crisis, and Peak Oil may well have arrived. While the potential link between these two situations can be debated, there is absolutely no doubt that declining surplus energy will greatly complicate and almost certainly thwart any possible return to "how things were."

Assuming Peak Oil came and went in 2008, I can envision no possible way for the world economy to grow past its former levels. It could only do that if we were already reaping the fruits of a crash program in energy efficiency that had been implemented some years back. Unfortunately no such program is even on the drawing boards today let alone begun when it could have done some good.

Here is another past Martenson Report that was previously available only to enrolled members but is now available to all registered users. 

The Federal Reserve Plays A Dangerous Game

I wrote this report over a year ago, in March, 2008.  The recession was underway, Bear Stearns had just been rescued, Lehman Bros. was still in business, and the stock market had not yet dropped significantly.  Thankfully, a systemic banking crisis did not come to pass during that time. 

I encouraged readers to take specific actions to secure their well-being in case of such a crisis.  Pay close attention to the very end of the report, where I offer suggestions that I strongly recommend you consider.  These recommendations are ones that I stand by today.

Monday, October 6, 2008

My belief is that massive, unprecedented change is coming.

No, I believe that it is already underway. When the dust settles in one, five, or twenty years, the economic landscape will be utterly changed.

Another belief I hold is that by taking steps now, both small and large, you can significantly minimize disruptions in your life that so many others will experience. While we will all end up in the same place in twenty years, I want your path to be as gentle as possible. By undergoing voluntary change, you will have more opportunities to shape your path than those who find change involuntarily forced on them. Where others will someday reach a cliff face that needs to be scaled all at once, my goal is to walk with you up the side trail. Each Martenson Report is designed to reinforce the lessons of the Crash Course, with my goal being to help you navigate the changes ahead.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Be careful what you believe.

A television ad for Morgan Stanley’s brokerage service flickers across the screen, showing a retired couple walking across a beach with a dog and their grandchildren.  Smiles and ease and comfort drip off the screen.  It is a happy, shiny future that they are selling.  Separately, a letter goes out from Morgan Stanley to their private clients warning of a “50% chance of a systemic crisis."  Which do you believe? 

Executive Summary

• Keeping a wide-angle view on this developing crisis is the only way to avoid being whipsawed, and the stakes have never been higher (at least in our lifetime).
• The US financial markets, and probably the world’s, peered over an abyss on the night of Sunday March 16, 2008, but were rescued by very unusual and concerted official actions.
• On the “happy, shiny” side of the equation, we have the fact that stocks mysteriously went up immediately on the open after the announcement of the collapse of Bear Stearns, and have continued up since.
• On the “Cold, Hard Facts” side of the ledger, indicating that a particularly nasty recession is already underway, here is the recent data:

• Housing data was similarly unambiguous.  Sales were down, mortgage rates were up, foreclosures up, construction down, and prices slid at a rate “not seen since the Great Depression.”
• Unemployment claims ratcheted higher.
• Consumer confidence hit a 35-year low.
• Global trade has decelerated to a standstill.
• Retail sales are in the cellar, plunging by more than expected, and auto sales are fading fast.
• The Empire state index clocked in at a record low.
• T-Bills gave a very strong recession reading, by briefly trading at 0.21%.
• Tax receipts for the federal government are down by 12% over the past year.

• You can choose to believe that the worst is behind us (stocks), or you can choose to believe the facts (everything else). But be sure to choose carefully, because the penalty for being wrong here will be particularly steep.  
• Simple preparations will go a long way toward mitigating the effects of a possible systemic financial crisis.