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A new Martenson Report is ready for enrolled members.

Link - Second Leg of the Housing Decline Set To Begin

Executive Summary

• Housing data is weak and just took a turn for the worse
• Stimulus efforts were essential to keep housing propped up
• The stimulus has ended
• QE and stock market prices are correlated
• What’s coming next
• What you should do

We bought our house in November of 2009.  This will turn out to have been a very bad financial decision.  We’ll be underwater on that purchase for a very long time; maybe forever (or until Bernanke’s great experiment takes the final turn towards massive currency destruction and inflation; whichever comes first).     read more »

Monday, June 28, 2010

Executive Summary

• Housing data is weak and just took a turn for the worse
• Stimulus efforts were essential to keep housing propped up
• The stimulus has ended
• QE and stock market prices are correlated
• What’s coming next
• What you should do

We bought our house in November of 2009.  This will turn out to have been a very bad financial decision.  We’ll be underwater on that purchase for a very long time; maybe forever (or until Bernanke’s great experiment takes the final turn towards massive currency destruction and inflation; whichever comes first).   

Of course, we bought it knowing that.  Our decision to buy centered on our valuing time more than money.  What I mean by this is that all of the changes that we are now fully engaged in around our house, ranging from insulating to installing solar panels to putting in a fruit orchard, all take time.  Time became more important to us than money, and so we bought.

But for every nation dealing with the after-effects of a housing bubble, what matters is that house prices start to climb again.  Of course, the housing bubble was just a symptom of the larger and far more damaging credit bubble, but housing is a useful indicator for where we are in the larger credit-bubble story.

Because of its importance to both the bubble’s bursting and its eventual repair, I track housing for signs of true recovery.

or ... what have you done that you never thought you'd do?

or ... where besides here can I find people who will applaud what I just did?

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

As my long-time readers know, I consider my main occupations to be information scout, dot-connector, and analyst.  But as a side job, I also provide a decisive alternative to the mainstream economic propaganda machine, which is thoroughly dedicated to maintaining the status quo, regardless of cost.

Everyone needs to prepare themselves for another round of economic instability, as the nation and world comes to grip with the fact that we are not going to enjoy a V-bottom recovery and that we are not going back to "normal"  -whatever that might be - any time soon.

We are about to enter another leg of the downturn, and this one will be even bumpier and more uncertain than the last.

It's time to prepare.

In Crash Course Chapter 20, Chris talks about assessing needs and taking personal actions.

What have you accomplished lately toward the goals you identified in the Self-Assessment?

This blog post is the most recent Martenson Report, which I am now making available for wider distribution.  I believe this needs to be read and understood by as many people as possible. 

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Executive Summary

• With the most recent bank failures, the FDIC is out of funds.
• The FDIC is levying a one-time fee on member banks to cover the shortfall, but it will not be enough and it punishes the prudent.
• The FDIC has been suspiciously slow at shutting down banks that have admittedly already failed.
• Banks have been allowed to overestimate the actual worth of their assets using "mark-to-fantasy" accounting.
• Hundreds of banks are likely already mortally wounded and set to fail.
• The FDIC means well, but creates a moral hazard the effects of which now haunt us.
• Take prudent action: Choose only high-rated banks, and keep cash out of the bank.  read more »

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Executive Summary

• With the most recent bank failures, the FDIC is out of funds.
• The FDIC is levying a one-time fee on member banks to cover the shortfall, but it will not be enough and it punishes the prudent.
• The FDIC has been suspiciously slow at shutting down banks that have admittedly already failed.
• Banks have been allowed to overestimate the actual worth of their assets using "mark-to-fantasy" accounting.
• Hundreds of banks are likely already mortally wounded and set to fail.
• The FDIC means well, but creates a moral hazard the effects of which now haunt us.
• Take prudent action: Choose only high-rated banks, and keep cash out of the bank.

Five more banks failed this week, resulting in a long weekend for the FDIC (see below). The largest of these, by far, was Colonial Bank, which will cost the FDIC some $2.8 billion. And that's assuming that their loss estimates pan out as expected and that the $15 billion in shaky assets on which the FDIC will share future losses do not turn into larger-than-expected losses.

Enrolled members should have received this report on Sunday via e-mail.  If you did not, please contact us so we can make sure that you don't miss future reports. 

If you are a registered user (not yet enrolled), this report is well worth upgrading for. 

The Coming Collapse

Sunday, July 12, 2009

Executive Summary

• Underlying beliefs can get in the way of action.
• The status quo is unsustainable.
• We face a future filled with "less" on many levels.
• Surplus energy determines social complexity.
• Peak Oil has passed and there is no return to the old economy.
• We still have some choice in how this change plays out.
• We must continue reformulating our beliefs and moving towards action.

The topic of this Martenson Report is one of the most important we will ever cover. My mission is to help you see that change is coming - potentially highly disruptive change - far enough in advance so that the opportunity exists to make gradual changes on your own terms.

Standing in the way of our taking actions are our beliefs, which we have formed over a lifetime of observation. For example, if I show someone forty-two very compelling graphs of Peak Oil, but the person remains unconvinced (as evidenced by their lack of action), I invariably find that they hold an underlying belief which is in conflict with the data. Most often, that belief turns out to be "technology will save us." This is a powerful belief, because it has been reinforced by a lifetime filled with the most exceptional technological progress ever seen in human history. So it won't matter if I show that person one graph, or ten, or forty-two, or a hundred. That stuff is just data. We take actions based on our beliefs. But if a belief is in conflict with data, the belief wins every time.

Every day I try to convince people that one era is drawing to a close and a new era is beginning. The lure of the old way is very strong. It is constantly reinforced by a media machine and an interlocking institutional framework that are fully dedicated to preserving the status quo.

From my point of view, the status quo does not have a future. It was unsustainable from the start, and even if we manage to resuscitate it for a few more years, nothing will change that fact. Worse, every attempt to sustain the unsustainable results in squandering our precious remaining time and resources, which means that with these attempts, we relegate ourselves and our children to a future of decreased prosperity.

Our economy is in crisis, and Peak Oil may well have arrived. While the potential link between these two situations can be debated, there is absolutely no doubt that declining surplus energy will greatly complicate and almost certainly thwart any possible return to "how things were."

Assuming Peak Oil came and went in 2008, I can envision no possible way for the world economy to grow past its former levels. It could only do that if we were already reaping the fruits of a crash program in energy efficiency that had been implemented some years back. Unfortunately no such program is even on the drawing boards today let alone begun when it could have done some good.

Here is another past Martenson Report that I am now offering free to all registered users.  It contains an explanation of the money flow between the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve and some recommended personal actions that you can take.  Click on the following link to read the report.

So Long, Mr. Dollar