New Martenson Report Ready

Excellent post and alert Chris, thank you very much for the detailed analysis.

I'm somewhat confused by this statement:  "But one thing I think can be predicted is that the chance of the dollar falling significantly in value is very, very high."

Do you mean if there is a banking holiday?  Or do you mean that even if there is not a banking holiday?  I was unclear from the context of your statement exactly what you were saying.

Chris, et al.,

Interesting and very sobering.   Been doing some research past several days and came up with many same thoughts as Chris.  Scientist and decisionmaker (53 years old) tells me to be objective...yet the magnitude of impacts...find this is not completely possible.   Question is...momentum suggests this could happen quite quickly...soon (possibly within next few weeks??) and so massively that none of can quite comprehend.    Any other thoughts out there on this?

--Nichoman

Hi Nichoman-

  My feeling/fear is also that if the dollar goes down, it is going to happen fast and big.  I think those powers with a big stake in the game have been very cautious about letting that happen, as they all have a lot to lose (US dollar-based assets).  But once it does start, they they have more to lose by NOTgetting out quickly.  So yes, that is my fear too.

   Also, Chris, Erik and others: Someone on your site posted a link to a very interesting article by Larry Edelson at moneyandmarkets.com  a few days ago, that had a different angle.  His take is that the G-20 may be thinking "If we can't print money fast enough to fend off another deflationary Great Depression, then let's change the value of the money." Larry pitches the idea that the G-20 may try to solve the debt problem by revaluating gold (high) and proposing a new monetary system that simultaneously devalues all currencies, and reinflating all asset prices.  Gold would be repriced high enough (and the new currencies low enough relative to gold) to monetize a large portion of the world's outstanding debts.  

   The article is at http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-g-20s-secret-debt-solution-27996  I'd be very interested to hear what you folks think about this, whether it makes sense and seems like a feasible possibility.  Or, if not, why not.   Thanks!

Lincoln National - LNC has dropped about 83% since end of Sept.  Have you left them off your troubled list of insurers for a reason? 

End the Fed

http://www.endthefed.us/

Lot's of good stuff at the Daily Paul today...

 http://www.dailypaul.com/

I saw a news story that said China is interested in the big three. :-O

I thought I saw you posted a while back that you thought the DOW would rebound... I know that was a while ago and that you should always be changing targets based on new data but if you do change your mind, is there a place that I can find your calls?  Maybe there should be a section that contains all of your targets and when you change them.  Personally I think you're awesome at pointing out the relevant facts and putting down complicated theories and relationships into simple terms that everyone can understand but it's a whole different story when you decide to become stock picker... don't get sucked into the 'dark' side of the business :)

 Having traded for almost 30 years I know that it can affect your views and make it more difficult to be objective.  I'm not saying you're not being objective, it's just a heads up on how things can turn out.

Xfiles,

I remember Chris putting a target out of about 9700-10K.  In a later blog post, he said that the rebound to 9654 was close enough to consider that target reached. This was in a Martenson Report on 11/7/08. I have not seen any more recent targets that I can recall.

All the best,

I'm pretty sure Chris pointed out the intraday high that he felt met that criteria, a couple of weeks back, in a recent report,

fwiw,

sue

Well hang on to your hat folks!  

Thanks for the alert, Chris.  When I woke up and saw the market off another 250 points, I had many of the same thoughts.  It's back even now, but who knows what will happen the rest of the day?

I've got a question about banks.  The list at the end of the report of the exposure of various banks to derivatives is quite disturbing.  Bank of America gets a "B" rating from bankrate.com, yet it is #2 on the list of exposure to derivatives!  That tells me Bank of America would be one of the first to go under, yet it has a "B" rating on bankrate???

In fact, there are only four banks within a 50 mile radius of me (and I live in the SF Bay Area, for crying out loud) that have an "A" rating.  I'm trying to alert my friends and family to the possibility of a banking holiday, but I honestly do not know what banks to recommend to them because there are so few.

I have 3 months of cash out of the bank.  Hopefully that's enough to tide me over if Bank of America (one of my current banks) goes under and I need to get my money back from the FDIC.

I'm inclined at this point to keep almost nothing in any bank.  Most of my savings are in gold and silver, so luckily I don't have a lot of cash to protect. 

Xflies,

after reading your comments today, I would like to challenge you to lead by example.

• What are your testable solutions?  I gave four areas of solutions, very specific ones, at the tail end of The Art of Deception. What are yours?

• What are your market calls?

It's easy to critique, and it is harder to propose.  If you think others are not proposing well enough to your liking, then by all means, lead the way.  That's my challenge to you and anybody else who believes there's a deficit of solutions here, or anywhere. Critiquing is fine as far as it goes, but it falls short of today's challenges.

Instead of saying, "you folks are not proposing solutions I consider acceptable", try saying "here are the solutions I find compelling".  Then let's see where the conversation goes.

And as for my calls?

They are stored over in the subscriber area in the Martenson Reports.

Since this is now old news, I am comfortable releasing what I wrote on November 7th:

In my last Martenson Report, I said, "Stocks. If I were holding any at this stage (and I am not), I would continue to hold them with a relatively tight stop trailing beneath. My target for lightening up on them would be between 9,800 and 10,000 on the Dow."

In the chart below, we can see that the Dow made it to 9654 before reversing, whereas my predicted target was at the green circle. The green arrow denotes the day I published the report, which was (frustratingly) written the day before. Oh well, it's pretty rare that a 1000 point rally comes along to mess up your newsletter.

At any rate, getting to 9654 was close enough to 9800 for me to consider the target reached. Were I trying to lighten up on stocks or protect a long position, my trailing stops would have been hit at the 9300 level on Wednesday (11/5/08). The blue arrow shows the intraday bottom that I am confident we'll be revisiting on this next leg down. That stands at 7885, or 811 points lower than our close today of 8696.

I'll be re-analyzing the market for clues after today's volume, price, technical and sentiment data is in.