Daily Digest - March 19

• 1)  Sengoku Says Japan Has Very Little Room for Stimulus

"“Japan is closer to the edge than any other major economy,” said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “There is the risk that the higher the debt numbers are, the more another stimulus package is going to backfire by pushing up interest rates or by making people worry about the need for even bigger fiscal tightening in the future.”"

• 2) Yuan Poised to Become Reserve Currency, Goldman's O'Neill Says

"March 19 (Bloomberg) -- China’s yuan is destined to become a global reserve currency rivaling the dollar and the euro, as the nation’s economic power increases the currency’s allure, said Jim O’Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc."

• 3) Think tanks urge SDR-led, multi-currency reserve system

"The report, by UK-based think tank Chatham House and the ESRC World Economy and Finance Programme, said the recent credit crisis and global recession exposed serious shortcomings in the international monetary system."

"The study outlined recommendations on a move to a multi-currency reserve system and greater use of SDRs alongside, rather than instead of, the dollar. "Historical experience has shown that two or more reserve currencies can operate simultaneously," it said."

• 4) Central Bank Gold Holdings Expand at Fastest Pace Since 1964

"March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Central banks added the most gold to their reserves since 1964 last year amid the longest rally in bullion prices in at least nine decades, data compiled by the World Gold Council show"

"Central banks, holding about 18 percent of all gold ever mined, are expanding their holdings for the first time in a generation as investors in exchange-traded funds amass bullion as an alternative to currencies."

"Official reserves of central banks and governments may expand by another 187 to 218 tons this year, CPM Group forecast last month. The council’s data also includes the holdings of the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and other international and regional bodies."

"“Gold is quietly, at the edge, becoming the world’s second reservable currency, supplanting the euro and rivaling the dollar,” Dennis Gartman, a Suffolk, Virginia-based economist and hedge-fund manager, said in his Gartman Letter today. “The trend shall continue months, if not years, into the future.”"

• 5) Stiglitz, Sakakibara Say US Wants Weak Dollar to Spur Growth

"March 18 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. wants a weaker currency to support its exporters, a possible departure from its “strong” dollar mantra, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Japan’s former top currency official Eisuke Sakakibara said.

There is a “contradiction between national interest and global, international interest here,” Stiglitz said at a forum in Tokyo today. “Right now, it’s not in the interest of the U.S. to have a strong dollar. We want a weak dollar and we want exports.”"

“If you are secretary of Treasury, you have to make a speech about believing in a strong dollar, but you know that no one believes you,” Stiglitz said.

• 6) [NOURIEL ROUBINI] Unsustainable private-debt problems

"In countries that borrow in their own currency and can monetize the public debt, a sovereign debt crisis is unlikely, but monetization of fiscal deficits can eventually lead to high inflation. And inflation is - like default - a capital levy on holders of public debt, as it reduces the real value of nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.

Thus, the recent problems faced by Greece are only the tip of a sovereign-debt iceberg in many advanced economies (and a smaller number of emerging markets). Bond-market vigilantes already have taken aim at Greece, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Iceland, pushing government bond yields higher. Eventually they may take aim at other countries - even Japan and the United States - where fiscal policy is on an unsustainable path.

In most advanced economies, aging populations - a serious problem in Europe and Japan - exacerbate the problem of fiscal sustainability, as falling population levels increase the burden of unfunded public-sector liabilities, particularly social-security and health-care systems. Low or negative population growth also implies lower potential economic growth and therefore worse debt-to-GDP dynamics and increasingly grave doubts about the sustainability of public-sector debt. "

"Provision of liquidity by an international lender of last resort - the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, or even a new European Monetary Fund - could prevent an illiquidity problem from turning into an insolvency problem. But if a country is effectively insolvent rather than just illiquid, such "bailouts" cannot prevent eventual default and devaluation (or exit from a monetary union) because the international lender of last resort eventually will stop financing an unsustainable debt dynamic, as occurred Argentina (and in Russia in 1998). "

• 7) Russia to Meet US Investors for 1st Bonds Since '98

"Russia is borrowing to help plug a forecast budget shortfall equivalent to 6.8 percent of gross domestic product."

• 8) Fed's balance sheet hits record high

"The U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet rose to a record high in the latest week, Fed data released on Thursday showed, on the back of the central bank's soon-to-end mortgage support program.

The Fed's balance sheet -- a broad gauge of its lending to the financial system -- rose to $2.290 trillion in the week ended March 17 from $2.265 trillion in the previous week.

That beat the previous record of $2.274 trillion set in January.

The Fed's holdings of mortgage-backed securities backed by U.S. housing finance agencies Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N) rose to $1.066 trillion from $1.029 trillion a week earlier."

• 9) TREASURIES-Prices hit session lows on supply preparation ($118 billion next week)

"NEW YORK, March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices fell to session lows in late Thursday morning trade, as investors made room for $118 billion in longer-dated government debt supply next week.

The U.S. Treasury said it will sell $44 billion in two-year notes; $42 billion in five-year debt and $32 billion in seven-year notes. The amounts matched those sold in February and what analysts had forecast."

• 10)  China could scrap Iraq's $8.5b debt

"Iraq is keen to see China play even a bigger role in the reconstruction of the war-torn country, the country's top envoy to Beijing told the China Daily in an interview last week.

"After 2003, China has supported us very much and reduced Iraqi debts by 80 per cent, which is greatly appreciated," Iraqi Ambassador to China, Mohammad Sabir Esmail, told the paper, referring to a $6.8-billion debt cut announced by China last month.

Esmail also invited Chinese companies to invest and operate in the country.

"I call on all Chinese companies to come and take up projects in rebuilding Iraq," he told China Daily."

•  11) Jefferson County projects to face delays

"Surgical procedures, roof repairs and road pavings will be delayed for months -- in some cases years -- since the Jefferson County Commission decided not to borrow money under a federal stimulus program, some county officials said Thursday. "

"A majority of Jefferson County commissioners said last week they will not borrow $26.8 million through the sale of taxable bonds under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 because the county cannot afford to go deeper in debt.

Commissioners say the county -- which is struggling under $3.2 billion in sewer debt, $800 million in school construction debt and about $250 million in general obligation bonds -- is not in a position to borrow more money."

•  12) Hard times send hotel industry into 'survival mode'

"Hit by a declining demand for rooms, low room rates and plummeting revenue, hotel companies have laid off hundreds of thousands of employees and are struggling to maintain quality. A record number of hotels are defaulting on mortgage payments. Hundreds have been taken over in foreclosures, and some have closed or are about to.

"Because of the recession and the credit bust," says Ed Watkins, editor of the trade publication Lodging Hospitality, "it's the worst downturn in decades — perhaps ever.""

•  13) Bubble prophet fears new disaster (Hyperinflation in Japan?)

"Economist Noguchi warns soaring public debt may bankrupt Japan, bring back hyperinflation

By REIJI YOSHIDA

Staff writer

Prominent economist Yukio Noguchi is one of the few who correctly predicted the collapse of Japan's bubble economy in 1987, warning the preceding euphoria was based on a major distortion in land prices.

Now the doomsday prophet is making another terrifying prediction: Japan is likely to be devastated by a snowballing public debt that will bankrupt its government and trigger catastrophic hyperinflation.

"There is little hope," Noguchi said in an interview with The Japan Times at Waseda University's Graduate School of Finance in Tokyo. "Japan's fiscal conditions are so bad, it can no longer be fixed without causing inflation. I'm very pessimistic."

Noguchi is not the only one deeply fretting the debt."

• 14) Bernanke Asked by Congress About Friedman’s Goldman Sachs Stake

"March 19 (Bloomberg) -- A House committee requested that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke turn over documents related to Stephen Friedman’s purchase of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. shares while he was on the boards of both the Wall Street firm and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“At a time when Mr. Friedman was prohibited from owning Goldman Sachs stock, he bought over a million dollars more of it without notifying the Federal Reserve,” said Representative Edolphus Towns, chairman of the Oversight and Government Reform Committee, in a statement today. “This raises serious questions about transparency, fairness and the appearance of a cozy relationship between Wall Street and the government.” "

• 15) India Raises Interest Rates for First Time Since 2008

"March 19 (Bloomberg) -- India’s central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates for the first time since July 2008 after inflation accelerated to a 16-month high."

• 16) Budget cuts run deep as officials try to stay afloat (New Jersey)

 ......................16A) State aid to municipalities may be cut by $445 million (New Jersey)

•  17) Revenue hit proposal throws budget planners for loop (Illinois)

"The proposed 30 percent reduction in income tax reimbursements to municipalities has area budget planners preparing for the worst, but hoping for the best.

Hinsdale, which made significant budget cuts last year and faces more in the future, could triple its contingency fund to partially offset any loss of revenue from Gov. Patrick Quinn’s plan, officials said."

• 18) Senate Democrats Report: Illinois Owes Schools Nearly $730 Million

"$728,591,449.56. That is the amount of money that Illinois schools are waiting to receive from the State as of March 11, 2010. "

"Senate Democrats issued the report to expose the grim reality and impact of the long economic recession facing Illinois and virtually every other state in the Union. Checks have not been issued to schools because revenues have dropped significantly and state bank accounts do not have the cash flow to make the payment on vouchers as they come in. As a result, the backlog of bills due has reached into the billions of dollars."

Ukraine Government Faces 20% Spending Cut April-July, Citi Says

 Florida Suspends Build America Sales, Official Says

Merkel Edges to IMF in Greek Crisis as Germans Oppose Bailout

 Tax rises hit Greece as EU meets on debt crisis

Greece close to being unable to borrow: PM

Greece Current Account Deficit Widens In January

 Waukegan school board approves layoffs for 560 (Illinois...1/4 of their staff)

World Bank is warning Eastern Europe of an energy crunch

 Federal Workers Owe $1B in Back Taxes

Lehman Had $39 Billion in Encumbered Cash Before Bankruptcy

How Does It Cost $940 Billion—and Cut Deficit? (Wall Street Journal ...health care)

Fulton Co. schools cutting 1000 jobs (Georgia)

Presidential approval rating ties record low again (for this president)

Dennis Gartman: The Euro Is Doomed

Gerald Celente: Great 2010 Crash is looming

Not sure if someone has already posted this, but it seems we have hit yet another round in the legal battle against the FED, where it is once again told it must release bailout details.

For them not to release these details would be like trying to buy a used car, asking to have a peek under the hood and being told you are not allowed, but trust the salesman, it's for your own good.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...

• 1) EDITORIAL: Taxpayer liability may be lowballed (Pensions..Nevada)

"And today, officially, PERS' unfunded liability -- the part future taxpayers are contractually obliged to pay -- stands at a record $9.1 billion, nearly four times what it was a decade ago.

That's $3,500 for every Nevada man, woman and child. But what if even that turns out to be a low-ball figure?

"In actuality, PERS' official estimate of $9.1 billion may understate the size of the system's unfunded liability," advises Geoffrey Lawrence, a fiscal policy analyst at the Nevada Policy Research Institute. "That estimate relies on the highly optimistic assumption that PERS will be able to do in the indefinite future what it has been unable to do in the recent past -- average an 8 percent rate of return annually on investments."

In real life, PERS administrators haven't met that goal in years. Over the past decade, PERS averaged only a 3.83 percent annual return on investment. For the past two years, PERS "has experienced a negative rate of return as the economic recession has led to deterioration in stock values."

In Fiscal Year 2009 alone, PERS lost $3.5 billion from the value of its assets -- a 15.8 percent decline in total value.

The prudent response would be for PERS administrators to "downwardly adjust the actuarial assumptions underlying the system's expected yield." So why don't they?

The chief investment officer for Wyoming's public pension system explains: "Nobody wants to adjust the rate, because (acknowledged) liabilities would explode."

A very small adjustment in the anticipated rate of return could have a tremendous impact on the size of the unfunded liability, Mr. Lawrence reported Thursday. Administrators at the Colorado Public Employees' Retirement Association, for example, have estimated that a 0.5 percent reduction in their system's expected rate of return would increase the unfunded liability by 19.6 percent."

• 2) Housing Market Will Fall 10%-15% (Video)

"Dick Bove: Housing Market Will Fall 10%-15% When Fed Stops Subsidizing Home Prices"

• 3) Greenspan Says Fed, Regulators ‘Failed’ During Financial Crisis

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the central bank and other U.S. regulators “failed” during the financial crisis because they became too complacent about risks.

Foreclosure Starts Up Nearly 20% in California

ICN Report 03/14/10 Southern Poverty Law Center goes after those critical of the government (Video)

The following article from AT today captures the sense of bemused disbelief that I think is beginning to pervade a great deal of informed commentary. Titled "Liar's punishment" its conclusion (basically the system is doomed) I think is becoming much more widespread:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Econ...

While the current system is broken, any credible fix will require sorting out winners and losers among a large number of powerful interests none of whom are willing to accept short straws.

When the curtain was briefly drawn back on the chrade in 2008 and the general population got a glimpse of the broken and corrupt nature of our "economic system" the outrage was barely contained. The wild bear of public anger was able to be soothed back into hibernation mainly because the bear would really rather continue to sleep and dream of honey pots and Hawaiian vacations than wake up to a bare larder, an empty stomach, and a cancelled credit card (nix on that vacation). The changing of seasons can't be avoided however, and dreams do end. The pot is simmering and at some point it will boil over - that's my take anyway.

There will be no audit of the Fed allowed, no accountability demanded by the politicians - of themselves or anyone else within the power structure. Acknowledging the state of affairs would lead to demands for substantive change - and perhaps to chaos - certainly to an unpredictible state of affairs - scary stuff.

Have a listen to Sibel Edmonds describe her agency friends warning when she wished to reveal political corruption of a very serious nature. Paraphrased "Who do you think you can trust to tell? Think about all your co-workers [other translators] - do you think that what you know is the end of it? What politician can you be sure is really clean?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5l913obD...

At some point the pot will boil over, the change of the seasons cannot be denied.

...and because there cannot/will not be accountability or transparency -- and because the bitter medicine the system so desperately needs is politically un-sellable -- some sort of Great Unraveling (the economy, society as we know it) is inevitable.  Just a question of when.  But as Dr. Chris says, in his opinion when it comes it will come quickly -- and it won't ask permission.

Keep on preppin' and preachin', folks.  Gonna be a bumpy ride.

Viva -- Sager

http://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/news/City-debt-163-42-000-adult/article-1918031-detail/article.html

Wednesday, March 17, 2010, 12:00

PLYMOUTH is being swamped by a tide of debt, sparked by the recession, says the city council.

In this financial year, residents with more than £73million-worth of problem debt have sought advice and counselling and the figure is expected to hit £100million by the end of the month.

This includes those who are having trouble paying their mortgages.

"The problem is people borrowing against their lifestyle, and then things change," said Darin Halifax, community cohesion co-ordinator at the city council.

"The most common problems are ill-health, marriage break-up and losing a job. Irresponsible borrowing from doorstep lenders isn't as rife in Plymouth as we thought it would be.

"You're likely to see debt figures coming down now because mainstream lenders aren't making such irresponsible loans," he said.

Mr Halifax and Pete Aley, the assistant director for safer communities, were giving evidence to the Customers and Communities overview and scrutiny panel, which is reviewing the way the council helps people avoid money problems.

Plymouth people were reckoned to owe about £6.3billion in total, including their mortgages, councillors on the panel were told. Of that, £1billion was owed in unsecured debt.

Based on approximately 150,000 people of adult age in Plymouth, the £6.3billion figure works out at an estimated £42,000 of total debt per person, including their mortgage. Unsecured debt works out at an estimated £6,600 per person.

The figures are for the last full financial year, 2008-09.

One household in every 11, which amounts to 18,000 people, has debts which bring the risk of poverty because of the size of their repayments.

About 12,000 Plymouth households are living in fuel poverty, which means they are spending more than 10 per cent of their net income on staying warm.

Since 2003 rising prices have forced up the fuel poverty figure, in spite of efforts to improve energy efficiency.

Mr Aley said the Plymouth Citizens' Advice Bureau had reported a 34 per cent rise in inquiries from people with debt and benefits problems in the past 12 months. The CAB, which is funded by the council, says reports of difficulties in paying off mortgages or other secured loans have shot up by 35 per cent.

More than 13,300 children and 10,200 pensioners are thought to be directly affected by poverty in the city, and Plymouth also has higher than average numbers of lone parents and people on Incapacity Benefit.

Mr Halifax said: "Most of our need for benefits and debt advice is coming from the west of the city, but there are pockets in the east where people aren't accessing the benefits they should."

The council commissions the organisation Routeways to give advice and run campaigns to target groups who are missing out on their entitlements.

"We've had letters from people who have used Routeways saying, 'For the first time I've been able to buy my son a new school uniform'," Mr Halifax said.

Cllr Andy Fox, the panel chairman, said that because of the recession 'there are going to be people coming into the position of needing help who have absolutely no idea about where to go.'

The council is trying to boost support for credit unions, which were praised by members of the scrutiny panel. It has now given funding and support to the City of Plymouth Credit Union.

Mr Halifax said there were about 12,000 people in the city using doorstep lenders, and only 1,000 using credit unions.

Cllr Peter Berrow (Con, Southway) said: "It's a worry when you see the adverts on TV for doorstep lenders, charging 2,500 per cent APR."

~ VF ~

We're keepin it going full speed around here Sager!  And the only real noise I hear is the "white music" being created with all of the health care talk. That of course effectively keeps attention off of the real underlying issues.

So when I stop and listen for a moment it is strangely quiet out there!!!  Kind of like right before the earthquake. So that gets me even busier preppin 'n preachin !!!! 

But Spring is in the air and life is good. I'm glad for the time and the company.

Coop

Saxplayer, you kick butt and take no names!!  You came up with some great articles today!  I found the currency-related articles and the article on Central Banks saving more gold really interesting.  -Also the article about Yukio Noguchi, predicting that Japan may be facing catastrophic hyperinflation.  Thanks for bringing so much rich news to our attention here, so it is easier to get updated!

Mike, thanks too for bringing that article about the Fed being challenged in court to release more info on the bailouts:

The U.S. Court of Appeals in Manhattan ruled today that the Fed must release records of the unprecedented $2 trillion U.S. loan program launched primarily after the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The ruling upholds a decision of a lower-court judge, who in August ordered that the information be released.

The Fed had argued that disclosure of the documents threatens to stigmatize borrowers and cause them “severe and irreparable competitive injury,” discouraging banks in distress from seeking help. A three-judge panel of the appeals court rejected that argument in a unanimous decision.

The U.S. Freedom of Information Act, or FOIA, “sets forth no basis for the exemption the Board asks us to read into it,” U.S. Circuit Chief Judge Dennis Jacobs wrote in the opinion.

I absolutely love the idea that the Fed is being held accountable to release this information.  But I've become so jaded that I find it very hard to believe that they will ever be forced to do so.  But I would SO love to be wrong!!  What if we've been jaded to the point of believing that the Fed and Central Banks are more invulnerable than they really are?  Sweeeet!

Coop, I really admire what you're doing (preachin' and teachin').  You're one of those setting the bar for the rest of us!

Have a good weekend, all!

pinecarr

Second that!