machinehead's Blog

by machinehead

Many of you will recognize today’s author from his insightful comments that appear frequently across ChrisMartenson.com.

It sucks to try earning income from investments these days. Until about ten years ago, most folks assumed they could make an easy 5 percent from safe, risk-free vehicles such as T-bills or CDs. With $500,000 saved, you could generate $25,000 in annual income. Them days are gone! Today, thanks to the Federal Reserve's Japanese-style ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) regime, one-year T-bills yield only 0.25%, while one-year CDs average 1.25% -- a mere $6,250 annually on a $500,000 account.

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by machinehead

This article ran for our enrolled users last week and is one in a series from respected guest commentators while Chris is vacationing with his family and working on his new book. Many of you will recognize today’s author from his insightful comments that appear frequently across ChrisMartenson.com. Enjoy!

Since early April, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes has dwindled from 4.0% to below 2.5% on August 24th.  Meanwhile, the 12-month change in the Cleveland Fed's median CPI has hovered feebly between 0.5% and 0.6% since March.  These abnormally low interest and inflation rates are fanning fears of renewed GDP contraction, a plunge into price deflation, or both.  Boardrooms and blogs are humming with rumors of a 'QE II' (Quantitative Easing II) program to counter a chilly deflationary dip.

One reason fears are so acute is that the Federal Reserve's main policy tool, the overnight interest rate on Fed Funds, is flatlined at zero.  Moreover, via 'extraordinary measures' beginning in September 2008, the Federal Reserve added some $1.4 trillion of securities, including $1.1 trillion of MBS (mortgage-backed securities), to its balance sheet in a stimulus bid.  Yet despite these heroic efforts, economic leading indicators have turned weak this summer, as sinking Treasury yields add to the disquiet.

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