My name is Chris Martenson. I think the next twenty years are going to look very different from the last twenty. I want you to understand why.
New here? Start with the Crash Course. This series of videos clearly explains how our economy, energy systems and environment face increasing challenges, and explores likely implications for the future.
My primary goal is to position you for a positive tomorrow by taking appropriate action today. I built this site to help you stay informed, protect wealth, build resilience into your life and community, and connect with other concerned citizens. Hope to see you back here often.
Off The Cuff: It's a Mad, Mad World 
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In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish set their sights on:
The Fed
- 0% interest rates through 2014 (at least!). There's not even a pretense left now about who it's policies are really directed at helping.
- Europe
- In the words of Shakespeare, the latest proposals are simply "sound and fury, signifying nothing". At this point, a deep and prolonged recession is a certainty.
- Japan
- Decades of can-kicking are coming to their limit. 2012 could well be the year Japan topples into crisis.
Recorded on Wednesday, this podcast features Chris and Mish tackling the parade of head-scratching news announced by various governments and central banks this week. It's almost as if they're competing with each other for the Darwin award.
John Mauldin: It's Time To Make The Hard Decisions
Back in the 1930's, Irving Fisher introduced a concept called the 'debt supercycle'. Simply put, it posits that when there is a buildup of too much debt within an economy, there reaches a point where there simply is no other available solution but to let it rewind.
We are at that point in our economy, as are most other major economies around the world, claims John Maudlin, author of the popular Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter and the recent bestselling book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything.
For the past several decades, excessive and increasing amounts of credit in the system have allowed us to live above our means as both individuals and nations. We've been able to have our cake and eat it, too. Now that the supercycle has ended and the inevitable de-leveraging cycle is staring us in the face, we will be forced to set priorities in a way that has been foreign to our society for over a generation. read more »
- Adam's blog
- 1 comment
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Daily Digest 1/27 - Sting Cost Google Millions, Outlook Still Grim For Greece, Aging Population Stresses Prisons
- Con Artist Starred in Sting That Cost Google Millions
- Israel Senses Bluffing in Iran’s Threats of Retaliation
- Pattern of Intimidation Is Seen in Arrests of Iranian Journalists and Bloggers
- At Euro Talks, a Calm Arm-Twister From the U.S.
- For Greece, the Outlook Is Still Grim
- Number of Older Inmates Grows, Stressing Prisons
- Waste to Energy: A Great Source of Clean Energy - But is it the Correct Waste?
- Poland Gives Green Light to Massive Fracking Efforts
Own the Crash Course Special Edition Set with Presenter’s Pack (NTSC or PAL)
- DailyDigest's blog
- 4 comments
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Fibershed: A Case Study In Sourcing Textiles Locally
Most of us dress ourselves each morning with garments that were grown, processed, designed and sewn by an anonymous supply chain. A combination of animal, plant, machinery, imagination, and technical skill came together to clothe you, but it is rare to have connection to any of these real life elements.
It is the goal of one central Californian community's members to put a face on their wardrobes, and to uncover, develop, and build a new way of engaging with the textiles of their lives. A bioregional supply chain known as a Fibershed is being grown out of a region with a 150 mile diameter — the epicenter just north of San Francisco.
The project aims to bring a thriving local alternative to conventional textile manufacturing systems and to support communities in reviving, sustaining, and networking their raw material base with skilled design and artisanal textile talent. read more »
- rburgess's blog
- 25 comments
- 1741 reads
Determining the Housing Bottom for Your Local Market 
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by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Monday, January 23, 2012
Executive Summary
- Why we may need to revisit how we determine "fair market value"
- Local factors to consider
- The importance of sentiment, and how to use it to your advantage
- The emerging two-tier pricing structure for most markets
- Five tools that will enable you to estimate how near (or far off) prices in your local area are from a bottom
Part I: Searching for the Bottom in Home Prices
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Determining The Housing Bottom for Your Local Market
In Part I, we examined how the policies of the Federal housing agencies and Federal Reserve have fundamentally socialized the U.S. mortgage markets and are propping up housing sales and valuations via zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), housing subsidies and various loan guarantees.
Along with the structural factors outlined in my December series, Headwinds for Housing, this is the backdrop for our individual assessments of “is this the bottom in my local real estate market?”
Why This Time May Indeed Be Different
Before we look at some tools that will help us make that assessment, I want to stipulate that this overview is aimed at small-time investors, not institutional players, and that it may first strike experienced real estate investors as too basic. However, we must be alert to the possibility that this real estate market, so dependent on Central State intervention, ownership and policy, is qualitatively different from previous eras. And so the lessons of previous markets could be misleading, akin to “fighting the last war.” Thus we would be wise to start with the most basic tools as a foundation for further investigation.
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The Coming Rout
For enrolled members only. Enroll now to gain full access to all Martenson Reports.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Executive Summary
- Further evidence that a Fed quantitative easing stoppage in June is likely
- Implications such a stoppage will have on stocks, commodities, bonds, and precious metals
- Why this will be more damaging to the economy than the 2008 correction
- Will the Fed eventually resume quantitative easing?
- Three alternatives to watch for that could prevent the coming rout
- How to hedge against the predicted rout
Part I: Why Things Are About To Get Turned Upside Down
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: The Coming Rout
There are a few things that make the prospect of a Fed quantitative easing (QE) stoppage more likely.
The Fed Notices Inflation
Using a flashlight, a map, and both hands, the Fed managed to find something:
Fed Finds Climbing Costs Hit Shoppers
March 3, 2011
Many manufacturers are passing along higher input costs to their customers, a sign that rising prices for wheat, cotton, iron, and other commodities could increasingly reach consumers in coming months, according to the Federal Reserve's beige book survey.
The report, a summary of economic conditions across the central bank's 12 regional districts, said manufacturers "in a number of districts reported having greater ability" to pass through higher costs. "Retailers in some districts mentioned they had implemented price increases or were anticipating such action in the next few months," the Fed said.
It's good to see that the Fed is at least dimly aware that price inflation is in the pipe and coming soon to a market near you. The rest of the world has had no such difficulties in detecting inflation, especially on news like this:
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